CITIC Construction Investment 2027 Investment Outlook: China strengthens its economy and moves towards new markets

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that looking forward to 2027, the multipolarization of the world will further evolve, China will strengthen, the economy will be new, and the market will improve. The “New Four Bulls” system is reshaping the pricing logic and liquidity structure of China's capital market. The A-share market is changing from a “financing market” to an “investment market”. Total market liquidity is expanding, the structure is being optimized, and enterprises are moving from high quality to new strength. A-shares operate along the “New Four Bulls” upward corridor, and a new round of market conditions is coming.

CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

Looking ahead to 2027, the multipolarization of the world will further evolve, China will become stronger, the economy will be new, and the market will improve. China has been the world's largest trading country and largest manufacturer for nearly 20 years. It is consolidating its foundation and making comprehensive efforts in economic fields such as high-end manufacturing, scientific and technological innovation, a financial power, and a better life, contributing Chinese wisdom and strength to multipolarization.

The “New Four Bulls” system is reshaping the pricing logic and liquidity structure of China's capital market. The A-share market is changing from a “financing market” to an “investment market”. Total market liquidity is expanding, the structure is being optimized, and enterprises are moving from high quality to new strength. A-shares operate along the “New Four Bulls” upward corridor, and a new round of market conditions is coming.

Financial powers are advancing at an accelerated pace, and China's assets have been appreciating for a long time. The RMB is internationalized, the sovereign credit is strong, the exchange rate is rising steadily, and the interest rate center can be lowered. “RMB currency anchor assets” and “RMB liquid assets” such as technological innovation, strategic resources, emerging industries, securities and finance are long-term opportunities.

1. Global Change: The World Is Multipolar, and China Is Stronger

Multipolarization is a global trend, and China is becoming stronger across the board. After becoming the largest trading and manufacturing country, there are currently four main strong dimensions: first, high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, chemicals, non-ferrous energy, innovative drugs, robotics, new energy vehicles, shipbuilding, satellite, transportation and other industries; second, scientific and technological innovation, the R&D expenditure intensity of the whole society has risen to more than 2.80%, surpassing the OECD average. Comprehensive scientific and technological capabilities rank second in the world, and AI development is in the first tier; the third is a financial powerhouse. The “New Four Bulls” system and institutional reforms drive the capital market from “financing” to “investment””; The fourth is a better life and expansion Open up, the RMB has the highest actual purchasing power in the world, and is already one of the top three trading partners of the 134 “Belt and Road” co-building countries.

2. New Economic Bureau: New Quality Production, New Economy

The “15th Five-Year Plan” anchors high-quality development, new quality productivity, investment in people, and safe development. The silicon base prospered, and the carbon base started again. Nominal economic growth accelerated, corporate revenue and profit margins recovered simultaneously, and the export structure was upgraded to become a strong economic engine. AI investment has entered a new phase, and the market is expanding to a wider range of economic sectors. K-type economic differentiation still exists, but it is also being bridged. 2027 will be a year of verification of the continuation of kinetic energy. On the policy side, the focus is on agendas from “investing in things” to “investing in people,” the second-year increase of major projects in the five-year plan, leveraging of policy financial instruments, the end of real estate adjustments, and income distribution reforms.

3. Asset layout: market upward, equity and debt remittance

Looking ahead to 2027, China's capital market will generally maintain an upward trend, showing strong stocks and bonds. Five trends will be further strengthened. The era of low interest rates is gradually approaching, the reallocation of residents' assets, the acceleration of technological innovation and industrial upgrading, the revaluation of Chinese assets, and the re-monetization of gold. “The multipolarization of the world economy and the rise and fall from east to west” is the general trend of global economic development. The “15th Five-Year Plan” is China's strategy for allocating major types of assets, and the “Four New Bulls of RMB Assets” are historical opportunities that are coming towards us. Focus on adding “RMB currency anchor assets”: key technology/domestic substitution, gold, strategic metals, navigation routes, chemicals/materials, aerospace and military, energy, electricity, medicine, robotics, and 16 powerful nation building fields. Stable standard “RMB liquid assets”: securities/finance, dividends, bonds, core asset REITs.

Risk warning: The current global industrial development and economic situation is complex and changing. We need to pay attention to the potential risks and possible effects of uncertain factors such as potential overseas economic fluctuations, financial stability, and geographical conditions. In 2021, inflationary pressure was high in some major developed economies, economic growth continued to slow, and monetary and other economic policies faced a dilemma. Since 2022, central banks in some developed economies have continued to raise interest rates to counter inflation, further increasing pressure on the global economy and debt. Most emerging and developing economies are facing pressure such as decelerating growth, capital outflows, and imported inflation. In 2023 and 2024, uncertainties such as global economic, trade and industrial chain fluctuations, the geographical situation, and debt risk still exist. The global economy continues to face supply-side disruptions in food, energy, and supply chains. Inflation disturbances after early currency investment and subsidy policies in some developed economies have not subsided. Since 2025 and 2026, policy adjustments for Trump's new term in the US have been carried out relatively quickly, and uncertainties about the operation of the market have increased. Recently, the world economic system has further developed into multipolarization. Many factors are intricately intertwined, such as the development of emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, the reform and adjustment of the international monetary system, K-type differentiation of the old and new economies, the global geographical pattern, and stable energy supply. The risk of uncertainty in the next phase of the global economy in areas such as total growth, structural adjustment and development prospects is still high.