Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report stating that since late October, the SOFR guaranteed overnight financing interest rate has been continuously higher than the reserve balance interest rate IORB, compounded by the Federal Reserve's restart interest rate hike, and market concerns about US dollar liquidity have heated up. We are observing capital flows layer by layer, from onshore and offshore to physical entities. We believe that the current liquidity of the US dollar has not yet become a major contradiction affecting asset pricing, but marginal tightening is worth paying attention to. Currently, onshore dollar liquidity pressure is concentrated in the repurchase market, and banks are still stable; offshore dollar supply is abundant; transmission to entities is fragmented, notes and loans continue to expand, and corporate bond issuance is shrinking. The pressure is concentrated on low-rated companies such as CCC level. Around the end of the year, we need to pay attention to whether the pressure in the repurchase market spreads to banks, and whether the pressure to issue credit in the bond market spreads to higher ratings.

Zhitongcaijing · 1d ago
Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report stating that since late October, the SOFR guaranteed overnight financing interest rate has been continuously higher than the reserve balance interest rate IORB, compounded by the Federal Reserve's restart interest rate hike, and market concerns about US dollar liquidity have heated up. We are observing capital flows layer by layer, from onshore and offshore to physical entities. We believe that the current liquidity of the US dollar has not yet become a major contradiction affecting asset pricing, but marginal tightening is worth paying attention to. Currently, onshore dollar liquidity pressure is concentrated in the repurchase market, and banks are still stable; offshore dollar supply is abundant; transmission to entities is fragmented, notes and loans continue to expand, and corporate bond issuance is shrinking. The pressure is concentrated on low-rated companies such as CCC level. Around the end of the year, we need to pay attention to whether the pressure in the repurchase market spreads to banks, and whether the pressure to issue credit in the bond market spreads to higher ratings.