Bitcoin deviates from the trend of US stocks, and the ETF outflow of $1.5 billion triggers selling pressure

According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin's recent trend diverged significantly from the US stock market. Although the S&P 500 index recorded its best single-day performance since April 8 and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.7%, Bitcoin remained almost unchanged in the past 24 hours, falling 1.4% since midnight UTC. Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures were highly consistent in previous weeks, falling simultaneously on October 30 and last week amid the sell-off wave caused by artificial intelligence themes, but this correlation was broken on Monday. The flow of funds revealed a subtle shift in market sentiment. The US Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT.US) experienced a capital outflow of US$210 million on Monday, bringing the cumulative outflow since November 2 to about US$1.5 billion. Compared with the net inflow of more than 2 billion US dollars per year in the past two years, the current cumulative loss of these funds has reached about 1.1 billion US dollars. Among them, BLK.US (BLK.US)'s IBIT (IBIT.US) has been redeemed for 7 consecutive trading days, showing signs of continued withdrawal of institutional funds.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the pressure on the Bitcoin supply side is increasing. The mining company MARA Holdings (MARA.US) has sold 13,597 bitcoins in the last six weeks, with a profit of about 1.1 billion US dollars, and has made it clear that it plans to continue selling bitcoins.

At the same time, retail investors' interest also appears to be weak. According to data from Santiment, the number of non-empty wallets holding bitcoins has decreased by about 108,700 since October 16. This imbalance between supply and demand causes Bitcoin prices to lack upward momentum in the short term. BRN analysts pointed out that what Bitcoin requires is a “real buy, not a luck factor.”

Although macro data may provide support, the current market is more concerned with changes in actual trading volume than simply price fluctuations. Notably, Wall Street continues to advance the development of crypto-related businesses, and the New York Stock Exchange chose Avalanche as the underlying technology for its planned all-weather digital securities trading platform. This news has driven the AVAX token to rise by about 5% over the past 24 hours, showing that traditional finance continues to recognize blockchain technology.

The next thing we need to pay attention to is the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data to be released at 8:30 a.m. EST. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecast an overall CPI increase of 0.3% in October and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. This growth rate is lower than 0.6% and 0.3% in September. These data may help ease market concerns about inflation, thereby indirectly supporting the price of Bitcoin, but in the context of continued outflows of ETF funds, its influence is still questionable.

From a structural point of view, the decoupling of Bitcoin from US stocks may indicate that the market is looking for new pricing logic rather than simply following fluctuations in traditional asset classes. The more critical variable is whether Bitcoin can maintain its current price without large-scale purchases as supply increases and retail participation declines, which will test the depth and resilience of the market.

In the broader crypto ecosystem, Hyperliquid's HYPE token macro trend remains stable, and its price is testing the core trend line support between $72 and $74. The current RSI (Relative Strength Index) value is 52, which is in the middle of this range. Since the price is running below the 50-day exponential moving average, the short-term trend is still dominated by sideways or downside movements. The room for price growth in the short term depends on market liquidity and whether Elysium, a general-purpose second-tier network in the Hyperliquid ecosystem, can attract continued TVL (total hedging volume) after launch, rather than triggering short-term sell-off due to favorable news conditions. This is another notable structural change after Wall Street lays out digital securities, reflecting the trend of differentiation among different sectors within the crypto market.