China Automobile Dealers Association: Auto dealer inventory coefficient was 1.38 in October, up 17.9% year on year
The Zhitong Finance App learned that on November 10, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the results of the “Auto Dealer Inventory” survey for October 2026: The comprehensive inventory coefficient for car dealers in October was 1.38, down 17.9% from the previous month, and up 17.9% from the previous year.
The inventory coefficient increased year-on-year in January and October, and declined month-on-month
Although the car market is in the traditional peak season of “Silver Ten” in October, the peak season effect is clearly weak, and the success of “Gold Nine Silver Ten” falls short of expectations. The National Day holiday, trade-in policies were superimposed with local time-limited consumer promotion subsidies, multi-location auto shows, and manufacturer promotions, driving up traffic and orders in early October; after the holiday season ended and working days resumed, passenger flow quickly fell back to normal levels. Orders accumulated during the holiday season were transferred to delivery, and in-stock vehicles were substantially digested. Coupled with the cautious intention to refill terminals, manufacturers controlled the pace of wholesale sales during the peak season, and dealers' inventory levels declined sequentially. The October transaction performance was weaker than what should be during the peak season.
According to data from the China Automobile Dealers Association Passenger Federation Branch, the national passenger car market retailed 1.643,000 vehicles in October, and it is estimated that the total inventory of car dealers at the end of October was about 2.26 million vehicles.
2. Inventory factors for high-end luxury, imported, joint ventures, and independent brands all declined month-on-month
The inventory coefficient for high-end luxury and imported brands was 1.38, and the inventory coefficient decreased 10.4% month-on-month; the inventory coefficient for joint venture brands was 1.52, down 20.0% month-on-month; and the inventory coefficient for independent brands was 1.31, down 18.1% month-on-month.
The brand with the highest inventory depth in March and October
According to the survey, there were a total of 6 brands whose inventory depth of mainstream brands was greater than 2 months in October. They are ranked by inventory depth from highest to lowest: Yueda Kia, Changan Deep Blue, Geely (fuel vehicles), Equation Leopard, FAW Hongqi, and Citroen Peugeot.
4. Carefully anticipate market demand in November 2026 and reasonably control inventory
Entering November, car companies began a year-end impulse model, and the sales pace gradually accelerated. The “Double 11", Guangzhou Auto Show, and year-end impulse policy combinations, combined with the window effects brought about by the two new policies and regional consumer promotion subsidies nearing the end, are expected to drive a month-on-month improvement in store traffic and orders, and sales may pick up slightly. However, as the weather turns cold, weakens consumers' motivation to go out and watch cars, the terminal market may continue the characteristics of “lackluster demand, weakening passenger flow, and accelerated transformation of stock orders”, making it difficult for sales to increase dramatically. Looking at the whole year, dealers are cautious. 91.1% of dealers expect a year-on-year decline in sales, with a total decline of 33.9% of 15% or more. Of these, 24.1% judged that the decline exceeded 25%, and the market will continue to be under pressure on sales.
The China Automobile Dealers Association suggests that dealers should rationally estimate market demand and reasonably control inventory levels according to the actual situation. At the same time, it is necessary to increase publicity on “trade-in and end-of-life renewal policies”, boost consumer confidence by strengthening services, put cost reduction and efficiency first, and prevent business risks.