Goldman Sachs: Competition in the mainland logistics industry intensifies, profits are reduced, and the test is recommending buying JD Logistics (02618)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs released a research report saying that the third quarter performance period for A-shares in the mainland logistics sector ended, showing a pattern of differentiation. The bank further lowered its 2027 and 2028 industry profit forecasts by 0.4% and 1.4% due to renewed price competition and slowing demand in major regions; the bank's only logistics stock with a “buy” rating in the sector was JD Logistics (02618), with a target price of HK$17.

The bank pointed out that the profit gap of franchise-based express delivery companies increased, and the EBIT of Shentong Express (002468.SZ) and Yuantong Express (600233.SH), which increased their market share, increased by 72% and 47%, respectively, while the EBIT of Yunda Shares (002120.SZ), which lost shares, fell 13% year on year. Integrated logistics companies recorded steady profit growth. For example, SF Holdings (06936) EBIT increased 15% year over year to cope with the slowdown in core time-sensitive businesses and rising fuel price pressure through cost efficiency. In terms of freight forwarding, Sinotrans (00598)'s EBIT increased by 13%, benefiting from a reduction in low-margin freight capacity and a 60% increase in joint venture operating profit.

The bank said that although sector valuations have been compressed, they continue to be selective, preferring companies with unique profit drivers. As competition intensified again in the third quarter, rivals used aggressive strategies to seize market share, industry growth slowed further. Among them, Shentong Express increased 18% year over year, Jitu Express increased 15% year on year, and Yuantong Express increased 12% year on year, all of which recorded double-digit sales growth, better than the industry level.

The bank's only logistics stock with a “buy” rating is JD Logistics. Its profit mix is favorable. The net profit forecast for the third and fourth quarters is 10% and 35%, and the valuation is 6 times the predicted price-earnings ratio in 2027.