US stocks soared but Bitcoin fell: $1,282 billion ETF outflows suppress rebound

According to Woofun AI, there was a significant divergence between the traditional US financial market and the digital asset market. Despite a strong rebound in the New York stock market driven by technology stocks, the Bitcoin (BTC) price only barely recovered to around $75,000, and the increase was extremely limited.

This disconnect highlights the fragility of the current market structure. Continued capital outflows from physical ETFs have become the core resistance to suppressing price recovery, making digital assets unable to replicate the upward momentum of US stocks.

Judging from specific market data, as of 8:27 a.m. on the 10th, the transaction price of Bitcoin on the Korean digital asset trading platform Upbit was 12,24 million won, down 0.21% from the price at 9 a.m. the previous day. On the global trading platform Binance, the price of Bitcoin is down 0.39% from 24 hours ago and is now $75,277. Other mainstream coins also showed weak performance, with the price of Ethereum (ETH) falling 1.25% to $2134; the price of Ripple (XRP) falling 2.82% to $1.1. In contrast, the US stock market performed strongly, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 2.7% the day before, and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively.

Although Nvidia (NVDA.US) shares fell 4.3%, buying support from other tech stocks boosted the overall index. International gold prices also rose 1.8% to 4148 US dollars per ounce, while international oil prices fell by about 5% to around $87 per barrel, mainly due to US President Donald Trump's statement that large-scale military attacks against Iran are less likely, easing tension in the Middle East.

However, the digital asset market has not benefited from this round of rebound in risk appetite. During the rise in the US stock market, the price of Bitcoin fell by 1.1%, falling back to around $74,800. Ethereum and Ripple shares each fell by nearly 5%, and Solana (SOL) shares also fell by nearly 3%.

According to Woofun AI on-chain data, a total of about $71.81 million worth of Bitcoin positions have been closed in the past 24 hours, of which about 55.4%, or $44.34 million, is a long position. A total of approximately $30,069 million worth of positions were closed across the entire market.

This leveraged liquidation further intensified price fluctuations, making it difficult for Bitcoin to gain a foothold after a brief recovery. In the first half of this year, whenever the US stock market falls, Bitcoin weakens and performs relatively poorly in the upward market. Recently, due to the sharp decline in technology stocks, Bitcoin's response to the stock market rebound was also very limited, which indicates that the recovery in demand for risky assets has not spread to the digital asset market.

The deeper reason lies in the withdrawal of institutional funding. Last week, the US Bitcoin Physical ETF (IBIT.US) saw a total net outflow of $1,282 million. Physical ETFs are an important indicator of institutional investors' demand for Bitcoin. Over the past two years, more than 20 billion US dollars of capital have flowed into the market every year, providing support for the rise in Bitcoin prices, but even the cumulative flow of capital has turned into a net outflow state this year. Analysts believe that due to the lack of sufficient new purchases when the stock market rebounded, the Bitcoin price was unable to gain upward momentum. Currently, the market's focus is on the US October CPI (Consumer Price Index) data to be released on the same day, and the market expects the increase in inflation to slow down compared to the previous month.

If inflation rises less than expected, interest rates on US Treasury bonds may fall, which will have a positive impact on risky assets such as Bitcoin. Analysts at financial services firm Marex (MRX.US) pointed out: “The reduction in the US 10-year Treasury interest rate to 4.85% is certainly beneficial to the market, but this is not enough to offset the pressure caused by continued capital outflows and new leveraged positions.” This judgment shows that unless there is a substantial return of capital or favorable macroeconomic policies, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to escape the weak pattern in the short term. Its price trend will continue to be constrained by the double squeeze of ETF capital flow and leveraged liquidation, and the linkage with traditional risk assets may further weaken.