BTC falls below $75,000: four-year cycle fake breakout or real twist?

According to Woofun AI, after stabilizing the 50-week moving average for 7 consecutive weeks, Bitcoin fell below this key support level at the weekly closing price of $74,968. The current price is 0.7% below the $75,488 EMA level.

This reversal of the technical pattern has prompted a re-examination of the four-year cycle structure. Research leader Alex Thorne pointed out that this is likely to be a false breakthrough because historical data shows that falling back below the 50-week moving average after recovering from the bottom of the bear market is a typical trend for Bitcoin, and none of the previous four cycles have broken as a result. Looking back at the current cycle, Bitcoin fell 51.8% from its peak of $123,524 in October 2025, hit the bottom of the $59,517 cycle in June 2026, then rebounded to $81,195 and above the moving average.

Although the current price is 7.7% below the September 2026 recovery high, it is still 26% higher than the June 2026 bottom. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, Thorne emphasized the risk of error due to limited sample size: Bitcoin fell again when it was 18% above the average in 2012, and maintained when it was only 8% higher in 2015. He further pointed out that similar breakdowns below the moving average occurred in 2011-12 and 2019-20, but there were no lower closing prices thereafter.

For the current four-year cycle, $59,517 is the key figure to end bullish views. Galaxy Research (GLXY.US) believes that on-chain data, giant whale holdings, and market sentiment all point to the consolidation phase and are technically suitable for buying in the spot market.

However, the continuation of the bullish logic depends on performance over the next month: as long as Bitcoin regains its 50-week moving average and remains in that position, the technical bullish narrative holds true.

This trend validates the resilience of Bitcoin's repeated testing of the moving average over a long period of time. If the price can recover from the $75,488 mark in the short term, it will confirm that this fall below is only a fake move to clean up leverage; conversely, if it moves closer to $59,517, it may indicate the beginning of a new round of deep correction.