Known as the “king of solders,” tin has previously benefited deeply from the AI investment boom due to its key applications in electronic welding. However, due to market concerns that Democrats might slow down the pace of AI data center construction, the market value of US stocks evaporated by 3.2 trillion US dollars in a single day last Thursday, and tin prices also suffered a severe drop. In less than two weeks, three-month tin on the London Metal Exchange plummeted from a high of over 50,000 US dollars per ton to an eight-month low of 45,360 US dollars. This round of sell-off, triggered by doubts about the bursting of the AI investment bubble, just coincided with the most unexpected timing — the current shortage of spot supply in the tin market is at its peak in months. The data shows that although the absolute price of tin futures has declined, the LME term structure has been drastically tightened, and the premium of spot contracts on forward contracts has increased markedly — showing a deep spot rise structure. Exchange inventories continue to be in a hurry, and the core logic is supply-side disturbances. As the world's largest exporter of refined tin, Indonesia stepped up efforts to crack down on illegal mining this year. This directly led to a slowdown in its exports, which fell 14% year on year to 32,800 tons in the first nine months of this year.

Known as the “king of solders,” tin has previously benefited deeply from the AI investment boom due to its key applications in electronic welding. However, due to market concerns that Democrats might slow down the pace of AI data center construction, the market value of US stocks evaporated by 3.2 trillion US dollars in a single day last Thursday, and tin prices also suffered a severe drop. In less than two weeks, three-month tin on the London Metal Exchange plummeted from a high of over 50,000 US dollars per ton to an eight-month low of 45,360 US dollars. This round of sell-off, triggered by doubts about the bursting of the AI investment bubble, just coincided with the most unexpected timing — the current shortage of spot supply in the tin market is at its peak in months. The data shows that although the absolute price of tin futures has declined, the LME term structure has been drastically tightened, and the premium of spot contracts on forward contracts has increased markedly — showing a deep spot rise structure. Exchange inventories continue to be in a hurry, and the core logic is supply-side disturbances. As the world's largest exporter of refined tin, Indonesia stepped up efforts to crack down on illegal mining this year. This directly led to a slowdown in its exports, which fell 14% year on year to 32,800 tons in the first nine months of this year.