Oriental Wealth: Despite repeated external rebound, the A-share market is still on the way

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongfang Wealth Securities released a research report saying that the negative feedback on capital in the A-share market in the early stages is showing signs of being reversed. The daily inflow of broad-based ETFs reflects increased acceptance, the implementation of the 100 billion swap, and the National Standing Committee to “improve the capital market stabilization mechanism and enhance stability within the stock market” also had significant benefits at the policy level. Overall, peripheral markets may be overreacting to the US midterm election results in the short term. Apart from the possibility that AI data center construction requirements will rise marginally, the US midterm election results may also improve the US tariff policy, which is conducive to the end of the Iran war and easing interest rate expectations. Once peripheral market fluctuations stabilize, the rebound in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets is expected to continue.

The main views of Orient Wealth Securities are as follows:

Depicting the concentration and spread of capital among various industries as a share of industry turnover, the bank made a systematic review of the entire process from concentration to rebalance in several rounds of chip structure since 2019, and obtained three stable rules: first, industries with high congestion during the capital concentration period fell back and dropped more during the rebalancing period, while the undercrowded industry had limited adjustments, and some even bucked the trend; second, the industry that bottomed out earlier during the rebalancing period showed a large rebound after hitting bottom; third, the industry at the bottom of the rebalancing period confirmed that it had a large rebound after bottoming out; third, the industry at the bottom of the rebalancing period confirmed that it had a large rebound after bottoming out; third, the industry at the bottom of the rebalancing period confirmed that it had a large rebound after hitting bottom. Most can follow the market to form a rebound, but this momentum is mainly Beta repair from when the market stabilized.

Judging comprehensively, the bank believes that this round of capital concentration has declined significantly, and that the rebalancing of the chip structure is nearing completion. Currently, it is at a stage where the bottom area is gradually being consolidated and market consensus is reconsolidated. Looking back, with the chip structure being adjusted and the quantitative energy center restored, the relevant direction is expected to become a carrier for capital regathering, and a new round of market conditions is worth looking forward to.

This week, the Democratic Party won significant victories at both congressional and state elections in the US midterm elections, and the market is concerned that subsequent data center construction will face tightening of approval at the state and local levels. The bank believes that in addition to the possibility of a marginal increase in AI data center construction requirements, the US midterm election results may also improve the US tariff policy, boost the development of new energy sources in the US, and ease interest rate expectations. The impact of the midterm election results on the mid-term development trend of the US AI industry may also be overestimated. It can continue to pay attention to relevant parties' statements in the future, and in any case, their impact on the overall fundamentals of the Chinese stock market will be more limited.

At the configuration level, the bank tends to “have both offense and defense”: first, the direction of improving the economy as indicated by the preferred quality blue chips and the three quarterly reports; second, selecting the direction of independent narration and clean chips, such as AI applications (media, computers, humanoid robots), electronics, medicine, military industry, etc.; third, focusing on domestic computing power that clears up chips and rebounds, etc., and focuses on tracking relevant catalytic changes and institutional position changes in the fourth quarter as an indication of the progress of chip clearance.