EverCommerce Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
There's been a notable change in appetite for EverCommerce Inc. (NASDAQ:EVCM) shares in the week since its third-quarter report, with the stock down 10% to US$8.22. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$151m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 31% to hit US$0.03 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on EverCommerce after the latest results.
Following the latest results, EverCommerce's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$621.5m in 2027. This would be a reasonable 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 66% to US$0.27. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$643.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.32 in 2027. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.
View our latest analysis for EverCommerce
It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 25% to US$8.25. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on EverCommerce, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$11.00 and the most bearish at US$7.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that EverCommerce's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 2.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.0% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 17% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, EverCommerce is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of EverCommerce's future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on EverCommerce. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for EverCommerce going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with EverCommerce (including 1 which is concerning) .
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