Results: Genmab A/S Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
Shareholders might have noticed that Genmab A/S (CPH:GMAB) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.8% to kr.3,527 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$1.2b were what the analysts expected, Genmab surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$5.58 per share, an impressive 54% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following the latest results, Genmab's 17 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$5.41b in 2027. This would be a huge 26% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 47% to US$16.89. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.41b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$17.81 in 2027. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Genmab
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr.4,007, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Genmab analyst has a price target of kr.4,526 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr.2,850. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Genmab shareholders.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2027 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 20% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 23% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 14% per year. So although Genmab is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr.4,007, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Genmab going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Genmab (2 make us uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of.
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