Mitsui & Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 17%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (TSE:8031) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.7% to JP¥4,620 in the week after its latest half-year results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at JP¥4.0t, although statutory earnings per share came in 17% below what the analysts expected, at JP¥99.15 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Mitsui's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥16t in 2027. This would be a modest 2.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 3.5% to JP¥361. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥16t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥361 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Mitsui
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥6,062, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Mitsui analyst has a price target of JP¥8,600 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥4,500. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Mitsui's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2027 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 5.4% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 5.0% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that Mitsui is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Mitsui analysts - going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Mitsui (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
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