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How Early i6 Demand Will Impact Li Auto (LI) Investors

Simply Wall St · 1d ago
  • Li Auto reported October deliveries of 29,025 vehicles and year-to-date cumulative deliveries of 1,862,676, alongside the late October launch of the 2026 Li i6 five-seat SUV priced at RMB 249,800, with deliveries beginning in early November.
  • The new generation Li Auto i6 reached 200,000 units of mass production by October 30, and early orders for the refreshed 2026 i6 in the first 72 hours exceeded the initial order pace following last year's launch, indicating strong early buyer interest in the upgraded model and its in-house battery and smart driving chip.
  • We will now see how Li Auto's investment narrative could be influenced by surging early demand for the upgraded 2026 Li i6.

Scan how Li Auto's latest delivery and model launch story compares with other potential movers by checking the curated 21 high quality undiscovered gems in similar high-growth themes.

Li Auto Investment Narrative Recap

To own Li Auto, you need to believe the company can turn heavy AI and battery spending into a scalable premium NEV business while managing pricing pressure in China. The October figure of 29,025 deliveries and a year to date total of 1,862,676 shows ongoing volume. The key nearer term catalyst is whether refreshed BEV models can support a better mix and stabilize margins.

The biggest risk remains that high R&D and capex, combined with intense competition, keep earnings and free cash flow under strain. October deliveries, taken alone, do not change that risk in a material way. They simply provide another monthly datapoint on how Li Auto is holding share in a crowded market.

The launch of the 2026 Li i6 looks most relevant here. Management kept the price at RMB 249,800 while rolling out a 96 kWh in house battery and the Mach M100 smart driving chip. This ties directly into the thesis that Li Auto's proprietary tech and 5C ecosystem can support future software and services income.

Early 72 hour orders for the refreshed Li i6 exceeded last year's pace, and the 200,000th i6 rolled off the line on October 30. For investors, the question is whether that early traction is sustained enough to offset weaker L series margins, support utilization of the 5C charging buildout, and justify the current level of R&D and capex.

Li Auto Analyst Expectations In Context

Li Auto's narrative projects CN¥162.5 billion revenue and CN¥5.9 billion earnings by 2029. This aligns with analyst assumptions for 15.7% yearly revenue growth and an earnings change of about CN¥10.5 billion from the current earnings of a CN¥4.6 billion loss.

Examine how Li Auto's fair value points to a 27% potential upside to its current price before investors reassess that difference.

NasdaqGS:LI 1-Year Stock Price Chart
NasdaqGS:LI 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Exploring Other Perspectives

One alternate view on Li Auto focuses on the chip unit as a separate earnings story. Bullish analysts were already pencilling in revenue of about CN¥253.0b and earnings of CN¥16.6b by 2029, compared with the consensus CN¥162.5b and CN¥5.9b. The fresh delivery and i6 launch data could push both narratives to evolve.

Explore 3 other Li Auto fair value estimates, including one that suggests up to 73% upside from the current price!

Decide For Yourself

Don't just follow the ticker. Dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

  • A great starting point for your Li Auto research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
  • See our latest analysis for Li Auto. The report includes a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual, the Snowflake, making it easy to evaluate Li Auto's overall financial health at a glance.

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