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Should See And Spray Growth Require Action From Deere (DE) Investors?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • Deere & Company added Julie Boland to its expanded 11 member board, placing the former EY U.S. CEO on its Compensation and Finance Committees, while the business prepares to report October quarter results with consensus pointing to $4.07 EPS on $10.3 billion in revenue.
  • AI driven See & Spray technology, which cuts pesticide use by roughly 75% and supports a larger software mix, is drawing attention as investors weigh Deere's potential for more recurring revenue and efficiency focused earnings streams alongside upcoming results.
  • We will now look at how Deere's AI powered See & Spray traction could influence the broader investment narrative for the company.

Scan beyond Deere to compare its AI driven farming pivot with other hand picked 53 AI infrastructure stocks that are also tying hardware to software style recurring revenue stories.

Deere Investment Narrative Recap

To hold Deere, you need to believe its precision agriculture push and AI tools like See & Spray can offset cyclical pressure in large ag and ongoing tariff costs. In the short term, the focus sits on the November 25 earnings release, where investors will likely watch how mix, pricing, and tech adoption balance softer revenue expectations.

The biggest near term risk stays the same. Large agriculture markets in the U.S., Canada, and South America remain under pressure, while tariff expenses and debt coverage by operating cash flow are key watchpoints. The Julie Boland appointment does not materially change these operating catalysts or risks right now.

The most relevant recent datapoint for this AI and governance story is the upcoming quarter, with consensus looking for $4.07 in EPS on US$10.3b in revenue. Expectations call for higher earnings on slightly lower sales, which puts margin quality and cost control firmly in focus for Deere.

That setup ties directly into the AI and software narrative. See & Spray and the wider precision ag suite speak to efficiency and potentially more recurring style revenue, while the Construction & Forestry segment and long term U.S. manufacturing spend provide a second leg of support. Execution against these catalysts, in the face of weak ag cycles and tariffs, is what investors are likely to track next.

What Analyst Assumptions Say About Deere’s AI Story

Analysts are effectively treating Deere as a business where the AI and precision farming push, including See & Spray, supports margins more than headline sales. Revenue is expected to stay broadly flat for the next three years while profit margins are modeled to widen from 10.2% today to 20.9% by about 2029, which is a big shift in how each dollar of sales flows through to the bottom line.

The earnings bridge behind that view is sizeable. Consensus points to earnings moving from US$4.9b today to US$10.2b by around September 2029, with the more cautious end of the range closer to US$7.0b. That step up assumes higher value equipment, software features, and AI tools carry more weight in the mix, even if large ag volumes stay under pressure at points along the way.

Pricing for Deere stock also bakes these assumptions in. On the numbers given, analysts are using a future P/E of 23.5x on those forecast 2029 earnings, compared with 37.8x today and a current US Machinery sector multiple of 24.4x. That means the story behind the AI and software angle is not just about growth potential. It also needs to support a lower valuation multiple over time while still justifying current expectations.

On the revenue side, that margin led narrative is anchoring to a specific top line figure. Analyst models reference about US$48.8b of revenue and US$10.2b of earnings by 2029, with a discount rate near 9.2% to pull those figures back into today’s terms. For investors weighing Deere’s AI traction, the question is less about rapid sales expansion and more about whether precision tools can support higher profitability on roughly stable revenue.

Deere's narrative projects US$48.8b revenue and US$10.2b earnings by 2029. This rests on revenue staying broadly flat and an earnings increase of about US$5.3b from US$4.9b today.

Consensus price targets tie these financial assumptions to what the stock is worth today. The average target sits at US$688.44, only about 0.6% above the current US$683.99 share price, with a spread between US$500.00 on the low end and US$813.18 on the high end. That tight gap between the market price and the midpoint target signals that, on average, analysts see Deere as roughly fairly valued on these AI supported earnings expectations rather than under or over priced in a clear way.

Uncover why Deere's fair value indicates a 4% potential upside to its current price that may not last much longer.

NYSE:DE 1-Year Stock Price Chart
NYSE:DE 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Exploring Other Perspectives

One alternate view leans hard into Deere’s AI and software catalyst. The most optimistic analysts were penciling in about US$52.7b of revenue and US$11.4b of earnings by 2029, well above consensus, before this Julie Boland board appointment. You can treat this governance shift as a fresh reason to compare those upbeat forecasts with more cautious scenarios.

Explore 2 other Deere fair value estimates, including one that suggests there could be as much as 18% upside from the current price.

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

Looking For More Ideas Beyond Deere?

If you want to pressure test Deere against other opportunities, it can help to line it up next to businesses with very different strengths. The Simply Wall St Screener lets you quickly filter for traits that matter to you, whether that is value, balance sheet strength, or lower risk profiles.