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Why Sandisk (SNDK) Is Down 22.3% And What's Next

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • Sandisk reported fiscal first quarter 2027 sales of US$11.0b and net income of US$8.1b, alongside an 8 for 1 forward stock split and revenue guidance of US$12.2b to US$12.6b for the second quarter of 2027.
  • Despite strong data center demand and long term enterprise contracts that provide multi year revenue visibility, Sandisk now faces tighter regulatory overhang on AI focused infrastructure and heightened competition in memory chips, which could influence how that earnings power translates into future cash flows.
  • Next, the focus will shift to how Sandisk’s AI driven investment narrative holds up against the renewed data center regulatory uncertainty.

See how the AI memory story plays out beyond Sandisk by comparing it with a handpicked 53 AI infrastructure stocks group that is also geared toward data center buildouts and regulatory risk.

Sandisk Investment Narrative Recap

To own Sandisk here, you need to believe the AI driven data center story still underpins healthy demand for high end NAND and enterprise SSDs, even as politicians and regulators scrutinize new buildouts. The short term swing factor is whether hyperscale and cloud customers keep ordering at a pace that absorbs Sandisk’s higher output and long term contracts.

The biggest near term risk is that regulation and customer caution meet just as Sandisk ramps BiCS8 and data center capacity. This could leave utilization and pricing under pressure. The latest headlines tighten focus on that mismatch between long dated commitments and a suddenly more complicated policy backdrop.

The most relevant new datapoint is the fiscal first quarter 2027 print. Sandisk booked US$11.0b in sales and US$8.1b in net income, with basic EPS from continuing operations of US$55.49 and diluted EPS of US$52.60. Management also guided second quarter revenue to a range of US$12.2b to US$12.6b, so investors now have concrete near term signposts.

Those figures sit alongside longer term contracts that already secure part of Sandisk’s future output. This matters when the stock is reacting to AI policy headlines first and fundamentals second. For anyone tracking catalysts, upcoming quarterly reports and commentary on data center orders and regulatory friction will likely matter more than the 8 for 1 split itself.

Sandisk’s narrative projects US$59.6b in revenue and US$30.1b in earnings by 2029. That outlook assumes revenue grows by 27.2% per year and requires an earnings increase of about US$10.7b from the current US$19.4b level.

Discover why Sandisk's fair value signals a potential 161% upside from its current price and why this opportunity could diminish quickly.

NasdaqGS:SNDK 1-Year Stock Price Chart
NasdaqGS:SNDK 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Exploring Other Perspectives

One alternate Sandisk storyline focuses on contract stability rather than regulation. The most optimistic analysts, working off pre earnings data, were penciling in revenue climbing toward US$84.1b and earnings near US$57.0b by 2029, assuming multi year deals and high margins hold. Views clearly differ. Explore several scenarios before deciding how this latest quarter might reshape expectations.

Explore 6 other Sandisk fair value estimates, including one that suggests potential upside of as much as 312% from the current price.

Form Your Own Verdict

Don’t just follow the ticker. Dig into the data and build a conviction that’s truly your own.

Looking For More Ideas Beyond Sandisk?

If this Sandisk story has you thinking about portfolio balance and future opportunities, it can help to line it up against other businesses with very different risk and return profiles. The Simply Wall St Screener lets you move from a single stock focus to a broader watchlist built around the traits that matter most to you.

  • For investors who care most about downside protection and capital stability, start with a 32 resilient stocks with low risk scores that our models flag as having more resilient risk profiles.
  • If you want to aim for quality at a reasonable price, compare Sandisk with a 42 high quality undervalued stocks that blend stronger fundamentals with what our model views as appealing pricing.
  • Income focused readers who prefer cash returns today can scan a 6 dividend fortresses that concentrate on higher yields with a focus on sustainability.