Xu Zhijie, Asia Pacific gold strategist at State Street Investment Management, said that after the US midterm elections, the price of gold rose from 3,900 US dollars to 4,130 US dollars per ounce. This round of increase reflects that the market is re-evaluating oil prices, inflation, interest rates, and the trend of the US dollar. Among them, the most critical driver was the significant drop in oil prices, reflecting market expectations that the possibility of further escalation of the situation in the Middle East would decrease. Falling oil prices will not only help ease concerns about inflation, but also reduce market expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain austerity policies for a longer period of time. Therefore, the decline in US Treasury yields, combined with the weakening of the US dollar, will help reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and provide support for the price of gold. Although the cooling of the geopolitical situation may weaken some safe-haven demand, at this stage, the impact of monetary policy on gold prices is still quite significant. The bank adjusted the gold price forecast for the next 12 months by combining short-term and long-term gold factors. In the basic scenario, gold prices range from 4,500 to 5,250 US dollars per ounce. The bank still believes that the next major change in gold at the level of $1,000 per ounce is more likely to be upward than downward, and is expected to occur in 2027. In a pessimistic situation, the gold price range is between 3,750 and 4,500 US dollars per ounce. The bank believes that for long-term strategic investors, 3,800 to 4,100 US dollars per ounce will be an attractive time to enter the market.

Xu Zhijie, Asia Pacific gold strategist at State Street Investment Management, said that after the US midterm elections, the price of gold rose from 3,900 US dollars to 4,130 US dollars per ounce. This round of increase reflects that the market is re-evaluating oil prices, inflation, interest rates, and the trend of the US dollar. Among them, the most critical driver was the significant drop in oil prices, reflecting market expectations that the possibility of further escalation of the situation in the Middle East would decrease. Falling oil prices will not only help ease concerns about inflation, but also reduce market expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain austerity policies for a longer period of time. Therefore, the decline in US Treasury yields, combined with the weakening of the US dollar, will help reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and provide support for the price of gold. Although the cooling of the geopolitical situation may weaken some safe-haven demand, at this stage, the impact of monetary policy on gold prices is still quite significant. The bank adjusted the gold price forecast for the next 12 months by combining short-term and long-term gold factors. In the basic scenario, gold prices range from 4,500 to 5,250 US dollars per ounce. The bank still believes that the next major change in gold at the level of $1,000 per ounce is more likely to be upward than downward, and is expected to occur in 2027. In a pessimistic situation, the gold price range is between 3,750 and 4,500 US dollars per ounce. The bank believes that for long-term strategic investors, 3,800 to 4,100 US dollars per ounce will be an attractive time to enter the market.