Societe Generale Securities: The cost performance ratio and stability of the transportation sector highlights the selection of segmented tracks with quantitative price flexibility and deterministic returns
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Societe Generale Securities released a research report saying that the cost performance ratio and stability of the transportation sector allocation are prominent, that the “Measures for the Management of Assets and Liabilities of Insurance Companies” are being combined to promote long-term insurance capital to strengthen high-dividend allocation, and new progress has been made in related policy revisions such as the “Highway Law”, which is expected to drive a new round of valuation repairs. The fundamentals of segmentation continue to differentiate, and segmented tracks with quantitative price flexibility and deterministic returns are preferred.
Societe Generale Securities's main views are as follows:
Dividend contraction is progressing at an accelerated pace, and the cost performance and stability of the transportation sector configuration are highlighted
As of August 5, 2026, the operating scale of dividend-themed funds in the entire market has reached 686.402 billion yuan, and the increase is gradually being dominated by passive indices. Capital is concentrated on high-quality core assets, and the trend of “dividend contraction circle” is clear. In the Shanghai Stock Exchange Dividend Index over the past ten years, the average weight of the transportation sector has stabilized at around 15.4%. The standard deviation is lower than that of banks and coal, showing the weak cyclicality of monopoly infrastructure assets. As of October 15, 2026, the PE/PB quantiles for banks and coal were both 90%-100% high, while the PE/PB quantiles in the transportation sector were only 67.29% and 27.32%, making the margin of valuation safety more adequate.
Judging from the trading congestion level in the last week, the transportation sector is at the historical level of 51.8%, and capital continues to flow in and has not yet reached a state of overcrowding; in the segment, the congestion level of highway, port, and railway transportation resonates with a “sharp rise in volume and price”, which has both upward mobility and allocation safety margins, and has excessive value. Combining the “Measures for the Management of Assets and Liabilities of Insurance Companies” to promote long-term insurance capital to strengthen the allocation of high dividends, and new progress has been made in revising related policies such as the “Highway Law”, which is expected to drive a new round of valuation repairs.
The fundamentals of segmentation continue to differentiate, and segmented tracks with quantitative price flexibility and deterministic returns are preferred
Expressway (valuation is on the rise, focusing on incremental improvements and expansions): The peak of the industry's capital expenditure has passed, and the average dividend rate has risen sharply to 48.4%. The “spread between the dividend yield of the 2026E Expressway high dividend target and the 10-year treasury bond yield” is 234BP. Trucks are being diverted against the backdrop of high oil prices, but high-quality road products, which account for a high proportion of buses, have shown strong profit resilience, and the transformation and expansion model continues to open up medium- to long-term space.
Port sector (foreign trade resilience supports throughput, strategic revaluation resonates with high dividends): The total import and export value reached 39.94 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2026, rising to 18.8% year-on-year growth, and the performance of hub ports was impressive. The industry's dividend rate fluctuated from 2.39% in 2020 to 3.44% in 2026, and has continued to be higher than treasury bonds since 2024.
Railway sector (strong passenger transport boom, rising volume and price catalytic value revaluation): The country's railway passenger traffic reached a record high, surpassing 4.6 billion passengers in 2025, and the passenger turnover market share rose to 46.1%. High-speed rail network encryption and market-based pricing reforms have been deepened, and popular routes announced that the upper limit of ticket price fluctuation has been opened, bringing about rigid profit flexibility. Currently, the PB fraction of the sector is only 10.91%, which is at the absolute bottom of history, and has both growth attributes and room for valuation repair.
Recommended to follow
Wantong Expressway: 2026H1 toll revenue bucked the trend and increased by 8.40% after deducting non-net profit; renovation, expansion and mergers and acquisitions opened up incremental space, promising a three-year dividend rate of not less than 60%. According to the closing price on October 15, the dividend rates for A-shares in 2026-2028 are 4.21%, 3.80%, and 4.20%, respectively.
China Merchants Port: A leading port with a global layout, benefiting from the container foreign trade boom. As of October 15, the PB was 0.97 times, the dividend ratio rose to 43%, and the dividend rate (TTM) was 4.02%, which is both resilient and steady returns.
Tangshan Port: The dry bulk business in the hinterland is stable, maintaining a fixed dividend of 0.2 yuan per share for six consecutive years. The dividend rate reached 59.31% in 2025, and the dividend rate (TTM) on October 15, 2026 was 4.19%, and the dividend certainty is strong.
Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway: The main line benefited from a 20% increase in benchmark cars and a 20% increase in announced ticket prices. The cross-line benefited from the opening and drainage of the Xiongshang High Speed Rail in September 2026; the continuous construction of “eight vertical and eight horizontal” channels along the river will promote the full release of production capacity in the future (annual profit increase of 462 million yuan to 923 million yuan). Compared with the historically low valuation quantile, DCF has plenty of room for absolute valuation.
Risk warning: large macroeconomic fluctuations; demand recovery falls short of expectations; sharp fluctuations in commodity prices; worsening global economic and trade conditions.