Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | International oil prices are once again sounding the alarm! Brent Crude Oil Approaches $100; Geographic Risk Premium Reignited (with concept stocks)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that international oil prices once again ushered in a strong rebound. On November 5, buying in the international crude oil market clearly heated up. Brent crude oil rose 5.0% to 99.47 US dollars/barrel during the day; WTI crude oil rose 3.5% to 91.22 US dollars/barrel during the day. Brent crude oil is once again approaching the 100 US dollars/barrel integer mark, reflecting that market concerns about the safety of Middle Eastern crude oil supply are heating up again.

It is worth noting that this oil price rebound was not simply driven by increased demand, but was more affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, safety of key shipping routes, and changes in global crude oil inventories. Previously, the market once bet on easing relations between the US and Iran and cooling down the regional conflict, driving oil prices down sharply, but the latest tanker attack once again shattered the market's optimistic expectations.

Judging from recent market performance, the sharp fluctuations in international oil prices largely reflect that investors' expectations about the situation in the Middle East are changing rapidly.

First, shipping safety issues in the Strait of Hormuz remain a core variable affecting global crude oil supply.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and is one of the most important energy transportation routes in the world. Crude oil exports from major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iran all rely on this channel to varying degrees. If shipping in the strait continues to be disrupted, it may not only affect Middle Eastern crude oil exports, but also drive up global crude oil transportation costs, insurance costs, and risk premiums in the spot market.

According to a November 5 report, the recent attack on an oil tanker caused the market to re-evaluate energy transportation risks in the Middle East. The UK Maritime Trade Action Office (UKMTO) reports that since the beginning of November, there have been at least five ship-related incidents in the region, while the number of related incidents reached 35 in October. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps also said that two tankers and a tugboat caught fire after passing through a route related to the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian attack on Russian refining facilities has also caused the market to worry that Russian exports of refined oil products may be further affected. The supply of crude oil and refined oil products faced potential disruptions at the same time, further strengthening the bullish sentiment in the market.

Second, there is still great uncertainty about the progress of diplomacy between the US and Iran.

Earlier, the US midterm election results once made the market look forward to America's push to end the Iranian conflict. Investors tend to think that regional tension is expected to ease and crude oil supply will gradually resume. However, diplomatic expectations do not equal actual supply recovery, especially when shipping safety is not effectively guaranteed, and crude oil traders still need to pay a risk premium for potential supply disruptions.

According to reports, the market analyst firm Eurasia Group recently adjusted its judgment on the situation between the US and Iran, raised the possibility of a long-term standoff to 30%, and warned that if the conflict escalates further, Brent crude oil may rise to 110 to 125 US dollars/barrel. It can be seen from this that even if the phased trading situation in the market eases expectations, geopolitical risks are still an important support for oil prices.

Third, global crude oil inventories continue to decline, and supply buffering capabilities are being tested.

According to the “Petroleum Market Report” released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in October, by the end of September 2026, global observable oil stocks had decreased by about 509 million barrels compared to the end of February. Onshore inventories continued to decline, and inventory buffering capacity was significantly weakened. Although some oil-producing countries in the Middle East have previously promoted export recovery, recently energy infrastructure and tanker transportation have once again been impacted by safety risks, and the stability of supply recovery is still questionable.

This means that the current crude oil market is not simply uncertain about supply expectations; actual inventory levels have also weakened the market's ability to cope with sudden supply disruptions to a certain extent. Once exports from important oil-producing countries are blocked again, oil prices may react more violently than normal changes in supply and demand.

As for the future market, the crude oil market may show a pattern of short-term risk premium support and a medium- to long-term fundamental game between supply and demand.

In the short term, Brent crude oil once again hit $100 per barrel, which means that the market is recapitalizing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. If shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted, or if attacks on oil tankers and energy infrastructure increase further, concerns about disruptions in crude oil supply may continue to drive capital inflows into the energy market.

What is particularly noteworthy is that the rise in crude oil prices may have a certain self-reinforcing effect: rising oil prices push up shipping and insurance costs, and some traders adjust transportation routes or delay delivery as a result, which in turn affects the efficiency of spot supply and further amplifies market concerns about tight supply.

However, $100 per barrel may also become an important psychological game position between long and short sides in the short term. If the US and Iran resume effective diplomatic communication, regional shipping risks decline, or if exports from Middle Eastern oil producers continue to recover, the current accumulated geopolitical risk premium may quickly subside. Therefore, a 5% increase in a single day cannot simply be viewed as the establishment of a new round of long-term bull markets.

In the medium to long term, the relationship between global crude oil supply and demand remains the key to determining oil price trends.

In its October report, the IEA predicts that in 2026, global oil demand will drop by about 2.6 million b/d year on year, mainly affected by factors such as limited fuel supply, rising energy prices, and weakening economic prospects due to the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, the IEA expects a significant recovery in global oil supply in 2027, with annual supply growth of 7.7 million b/d.

The short-term energy outlook released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in October predicts that as supply restrictions in the Middle East gradually ease, the spot price of Brent crude oil may fall back to 87 US dollars/barrel by the second quarter of 2027, and fall further to 74 US dollars/barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027.

Both agencies' predictions indicate that if regional conflicts gradually ease and crude oil transportation channels return to normal, the global supply side may once again suppress oil prices.

However, Goldman Sachs announced an increase in crude oil price forecasts for two reasons: first, the considerable downside risk in supply is likely to maintain a high risk premium in the near future; second, Goldman Sachs's newly introduced “Global Supply Disruption Reserve” covers the high risk of medium term disruptions and lowered the mid-term global oil production forecast.

Specifically, Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast for December this year from $90 to $105, WTI from $81 to $94; the 2027 average price forecast was raised from $80 to $88 (Brent) and $73 to $78 (WTI).

Related concept stocks:

CNOOC (00883): Previously announced the results for the first three quarters of 2026, with operating income of 355.574 billion yuan (RMB, same below), up 13.8% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 119.118 billion yuan, up 16.8% year on year; basic earnings per share were 2.51 yuan.

CNPC (00857): UBS released a research report stating that it raised the target price of CNPC shares from HK$12.8 to HK$13.3, maintaining a “buy” rating. Considering the company's performance and operating prospects for the first nine months, the bank raised its 2026 profit forecast by 5% and remains optimistic about the company's operating trends. It is expected that the upstream business will continue to benefit from high oil prices.

CNOOC Oilfield Services (02883): Previously announced the results for the first three quarters of 2026, the group obtained operating income of RMB 35.729 billion, an increase of 2.5%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 3.23 billion, an increase of 0.7% over the previous year; and basic earnings per share of 0.68 yuan.