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NCC (OM:NCC B) Could Be 9% Undervalued On Q3 Results And Fresh Contract Wins

Simply Wall St · 9h ago

NCC (OM:NCC B) is back in focus after third quarter 2026 results showed essentially flat sales alongside lower net income, while a string of new contracts in Sweden and Norway reshaped expectations around future project activity.

NCC’s recent contract wins in Sweden and Norway have coincided with a firmer share price, with the SEK186.7 level coming after a 30 day share price return of 6.99% and a 90 day gain of 7.30%. This comes even though the year to date share price return is down 15.29% and the 1 year total shareholder return has declined 4.48%, while the 3 year and 5 year total shareholder returns of 93.38% and 56.81% indicate that longer term investors have already seen substantial value creation.

Scan beyond NCC and size up other construction focused plays with recent momentum, using our hand picked 215 resilient stocks with low risk scores as a starting universe.

NCC now combines a long construction track record with fresh contract momentum and a mixed earnings trend. After this recent share price rebound, is that quality already fully reflected in the valuation, or not yet?

Most Popular Narrative: 9% Undervalued

NCC’s most followed narrative points to a fair value of SEK205 per share, compared to the SEK186.7 last close. This puts the current quote at a discount while investors weigh contract momentum against restructuring risks.

The planned divestment of NCC Industry for an enterprise value of SEK 8.2b, with about SEK 7b of expected cash inflow at closing, is set to leave NCC as a more focused, lower-capital-intensity contracting group. This can influence future earnings, net margins and capital allocation capacity.

Plans to gradually sell capital intensive commercial properties, together with a Property Development balance of SEK 7.3b in capital employed and office assets that management intends to dispose of over time, create potential future cash inflows and earnings contributions once transactions occur.

See why 11 investors see NCC as 9% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of SEK205 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the NCC narrative comes with pressure points, including ongoing legal dispute costs that weigh on EBIT and subdued Property Development earnings that limit near term support from asset sales.

Find out about the key risks to this NCC narrative.

Next Steps

Mixed feelings about NCC after these results and contract updates are understandable, so move quickly from headline impressions to the underlying detail and weigh it up yourself. To see how the balance of concerns and potential upsides stacks up, review the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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If NCC has sharpened your interest, do not stop here. Broaden your opportunity set and pressure test your thinking with focused stock shortlists built from real fundamentals.