MINISO Group Fell 50% While Sales Rose

If you had been weighing MINISO Group in late 2025 and decided to hold through a year of bullish growth forecasts and cautious digital headwinds, the outcome would have been painful. Holding MINISO Group over the past year would have meant a 50.4% loss, including dividends. With that backdrop and Q2 2026 results showing higher revenue alongside a swing to net loss, which early warning or assumption from 2025 would you focus on first?

The easy part of this move is behind MINISO Group. Zero in on 35 high quality undervalued stocks for companies trading below our estimates.

The Argument You Would Have Been Weighing On MINISO Group

The shares cost US$21.1 at the start of the period. Investors in MINISO Group were effectively choosing between two very different stories about where the business could go next.

The bullish view saw a Fair Value of US$26.6. This price was implied by assumptions that international expansion, faster overseas revenue growth, and rising margins from proprietary IP would support higher earnings and a lower future P/E than analysts were using at the time.

The bearish case pointed to a Fair Value of US$16.5. This view was built on concerns that a shift to e-commerce, rising costs, and the risk of weaker productivity from aggressive store expansion could pressure margins and keep offline-focused growth in check.

What The Results Changed For The MINISO Group Thesis

Q2 2026 put profit at the center of the MINISO Group debate. Total revenue reached CNY 5,810.513m, higher than the CNY 4,966.068m reported in Q2 2025, which leaned toward the bullish focus on scale and international reach. Net income moved from CNY 489.688m profit in Q2 2025 to a CNY 289.186m loss, and net margin fell from 9.9% to 5.0% negative, so the profitability leg of the optimistic case stayed unproven. Overall, the evidence cut both ways.

The key lesson is simple. When a story depends on both growth and better profitability, track net margin and absolute profit as closely as revenue. For any retailer with an expansion pitch, check whether each new period pairs higher sales with healthier earnings, or just more volume and thinner economics.

What The Fall In MINISO Group’s Price Now Asks You To Believe

MINISO Group now trades at US$10.42. The selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits above the current price and leans on a store-led push that favors larger formats, overseas locations, and IP-heavy product lines.

You would need to believe that MINISO can keep scaling this model globally while maintaining enough store economics for the recent fall to look like an opening rather than a warning.

"MINISO has several key growth drivers that could meaningfully impact sales and earnings. Global Store Network Expansion is the primary catalyst, with the company pursuing aggressive and ongoing expansion of its store network, both in China and, more significantly, in overseas markets. In the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, MINISO opened 125 new stores, with 88 of those in overseas markets."

Not everyone reads the same price the same way. → See the higher figure this Narrative lands on, and how it gets there

Looking One Step Beyond MINISO

If MINISO tests your patience, you can still look sideways at alternatives. Retail stories built on physical stores sit beside very different models.

One large player ties shopping directly to payments, savings, and credit. It turns each transaction into a chance to hold the customer’s wallet and the sale.

The challenge there is funding a growing loan book. Cash flows can look weak when money goes out first and only returns slowly.

What matters is whether those loans ultimately earn their keep. If they do, that business is quietly building earning assets while headline cash looks soft.

That argument has a Narrative and a number behind it. → See the company one Narrative values 85% above its price

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