S&P Futures Hold Above TradeGuidance Long Range as Chip Selloff Splits Indexes
Daily Futures Outlook - Thursday, November 5, 2026
Index futures diverged Thursday: Dow and S&P 500 contracts edged higher while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped as Qualcomm and Arm fell after earnings. At 8:45 a.m. ET, ES traded at 7,731.25, above the playbook's long participation range and 75.75 points below the 7,807.00 target. SPX and RUT maps are in positive gamma; NDX is in negative gamma.
Market context
Early quotes had Dow futures up about 0.65%, S&P 500 futures up 0.23% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.49%, with Qualcomm down over 9% and Arm more than 5% premarket. Jobless claims came in at 189,000 versus a 196,000 estimate. Gold traded near $4,130, WTI near $88.8 and bitcoin near $80,330 (early quotes).
Overnight: What was trending and went to stated profit targets
- Playbook #1: GC and SI longs reached target (GC 4,129.3, SI 53.415), as did ZB and ZN longs (ZB 109'05, ZN 107'120).
- Playbook #3: PA and PL longs (PA 1,033.5, PL 1,534.7) and the ZL short (63.61) reached target. No stops were hit.
Playbook record, last 10 trading days (day + overnight sessions): of 733 setups that triggered, 158 reached target, 4 hit their stops and 571 hit neither.
Three models, one story
| Fut | Premarket ref | Playbook | Price vs playbook | Price vs SR pivots | 0DTE gamma | Trend odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 7,731.25 | Long | already beyond range, toward target; 75.75 pts to 7,807.00 | between S1 and R1 | Positive (+$4.82B) | 30% |
| NQ | 28,356.75 | Long | already beyond range, toward target; 931.75 pts to 29,288.50 | between S2 and S1 | Negative (-$545.51M) | 55% |
| RTY | 2,873.1 | Long | already beyond range, toward target; 37.4 pts to 2,910.5 | between S1 and R1 | Positive (+$77.69M) | 30% |
ES and RTY line up on the long side: both are long, beyond range, between S1 and R1 and in positive gamma. NQ is long too, but sits between S2 and S1 with NDX in negative gamma.
Today's resistance grid
| Contract | Expiration | Direction | This is the range for Resistance | Above here resistance breaks | Potential target if resistance holds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES – Emini S&P | Dec-26 | Short | 7,770.75 – 7,766.25 | 7,777.75 | 7,754.50 |
| YM – Emini Dow | Dec-26 | Short | 52,835 – 52,593 | 52,855 | 51,361 |
| NQ – Emini Nasdaq | Dec-26 | Short | 29,768.75 – 29,440.25 | 29,793.75 | 27,771.75 |
| RTY – Emini Russell | Dec-26 | Short | 2,862.0 – 2,847.8 | 2,869.0 | 2,775.4 |
| VX – Volatility | Nov-26 | Long | 19.60 – 20.05 | 18.90 | 22.85 |
The ES band sits inside the /ES central compression band (7,762–7,792), next to R2 at 7,771.75 and under the pin near /ES 7,782. RTY already trades above its 2,869.0 break level.
Playbook spotlight
| Contract | Bias | Participation range | Reversal pt | Initial target | S1 / R1 pivot | Price check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES – Emini S&P | Long | 7,545.00 – 7,618.25 | 7,532.00 | 7,807.00 | 7,717.00 / 7,753.50 | 7,731.25 at 8:45 ET |
- ES: Price sits at the SPX call wall (about /ES 7,732), above the flip (about /ES 7,718). The grid at 7,766.25–7,770.75 is the first test on the way to the 7,807.00 target; S1 at 7,717.00 is first support.
Support / resistance roadmap
| Contract | S3 lower target | S2 breakdown | S1 support | R1 resistance | R2 breakout | R3 upper target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 7,668.25 | 7,698.75 | 7,717.00 | 7,753.50 | 7,771.75 | 7,802.25 |
| NQ | 28,064.75 | 28,323.00 | 28,478.25 | 28,788.25 | 28,943.50 | 29,201.75 |
| RTY | 2,822.3 | 2,844.9 | 2,858.4 | 2,885.2 | 2,898.7 | 2,921.3 |
| YM | 52,852 | 53,188 | 53,388 | 53,788 | 53,988 | 54,324 |
| CL | 81.44 | 84.69 | 86.60 | 90.44 | 92.35 | 95.60 |
| GC | 4,027.7 | 4,047.5 | 4,059.4 | 4,083.2 | 4,095.1 | 4,114.9 |
What to watch
- Chip stocks: whether the Qualcomm and memory-name selling keeps NQ below the NDX flip near /NQ 28,637.
- First 30 minutes: whether ES holds the flip near /ES 7,718 and S1 at 7,717.00; acceptance above the call wall opens the grid at 7,766.25–7,770.75.
- Gold: GC trades above R3 at 4,114.9 in early quotes after the overnight long reached its 4,129.3 target.
Subscribers get every playbook idea, the TGPivots map and the 0DTE gamma report before the open at tradeguidance.com.
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