China's Rare-Earth Export Pause Expires Nov. 10. Here's What It Means for USA Rare Earth and MP Materials.

After decades of aggressive state subsidies and undercutting competition, China has taken control of rare-earth mining and processing. According to research from The Motley Fool, China controls 70% of rare-earth element extraction and 90% of processing.

This strong position has given China the upper hand in trade negotiations and has been a strong point of contention between the two countries. In October 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce significantly tightened control over rare-earth supply chains.

In November 2025, the U.S. and China came to a bilateral trade truce that put these measures on pause for about a year. The sides announced an extension of the broader trade truce in late September, extending the deadline to Jan. 10, 2027. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the extension covers China's broader rare-earth controls. However, China has yet to publish a formal notice, and the legal suspension on rare-earth will end on Nov. 10 without it.

The U.S. is taking steps to reestablish a domestically controlled supply chain for mining and processing rare-earth elements, with companies like MP Materials (NYSE: MP) and USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) leading the way. Here's what the export pause means for these miners and what comes next.

MP Materials owns the only scaled rare-earth and processing facility in North America

The U.S. government is investing heavily to reestablish rare-earth mining and processing, a fundamental shift that reverses decades of Western reliance on China for these elements.

MP Materials was naturally among the first companies to benefit from U.S. spending to establish rare-earth supply chains. The company owns the Mountain Pass mining and processing site in California, the only large-scale rare-earth mining and processing facility in North America.

Last year, MP entered into a historic partnership with the Department of Defense. As part of this, the DOD provided a 10-year, 100% magnet offtake commitment and a 10-year price floor mechanism guaranteeing $110 per kilogram for all neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) products. The DOD also agreed to purchase 100% of magnets produced at MP's upcoming 10X facility.

USA Rare Earth is building its rare-earth supply chain from scratch

USA Rare Earth has a bigger uphill climb. Late last year, it acquired Less Common Metals, a U.K.-based company that can convert separated rare-earth oxides into refined metals and specialized strip-cast alloys. Earlier this year, it secured up to $1.6 billion in funding from the CHIPS and Science Act to establish its own "mine-to-magnet" supply chain.

The company also acquired Serra Verde Group in September 2026, a Brazil-based rare-earth operation and the only one outside Asia that produces all four critical magnetic rare-earth elements. On top of this, it is investing heavily in the resource-rich Round Top mine in Texas and expanding its manufacturing and processing capabilities.

MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are long-term plays on the U.S. rare-earth supply chain

China's potential export restriction on Nov. 10 doesn't change the story for rare-earth miners like MP Materials and USA Rare Earth. While the two sides could extend the truce, China's export controls are fundamentally bullish for domestically based rare-earth miners in the long term.

For investors considering these stocks, USA Rare Earth is establishing itself, integrating its acquisitions, and expanding its production capabilities, and is a more aggressive long-term play in reestablishing U.S. supply chains. Meanwhile, MP Materials is the top domestic rare-earth miner, is actively fulfilling customer agreements, and has government backing that others cannot match.

Courtney Carlsen has positions in MP Materials and USA Rare Earth. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends MP Materials. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.