Yamato: Maintaining Raifu Harmonics (03952) “Buy” Rating Target Price of HK$66

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Yamato released a research report saying that it maintains the “purchase” rating of Laifu Harmonic (03952) and a target price of HK$66 for 12 months; the company has recently received a continuous increase in inquiries from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for humanoid robots in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc., and it is expected that some cooperation projects will reach more clear partnerships from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year.

The bank pointed out that in addition to Tesla and Figure AI clearly requiring suppliers to have overseas production capacity, most overseas customers accept Zhejiang Laifu's supply from local factories in China, and the company also maintains close ties with European and North American customers.

Yamato mentioned that the partnership between Raifu Harmonic and the Japanese company Harmonic Drive Systems (HDS) has provided an additional way for it to enter the Japanese market. Among them, the harmonic speed reducers jointly developed by the two parties have been adopted by industrial robot manufacturers such as Yaskawa Electric. The performance of these products is close to the original HDS factory level, but the price is only one-third to one-half of them. Since HDS has disclosed to its customers that Laifu Harmonics is participating in the project, the bank believes this move will result in potential orders and international brand endorsements.

According to the report's analysis, the average selling price (ASP) of Laifu harmonic speed reducers has dropped from about 800 yuan in 2023 to 500 yuan in the first half of 2026. Management emphasized that this decline was not due to competitive pressure, but rather a shift in product mix (from larger products used in industrial robots to smaller products for humanoid robots and collaborative robots), which lowered the overall average sales price. At the same time, the unit cost was also reduced from RMB 560 in 2023 to RMB 350 in the first half of 2026. Thanks mainly to improved material formulation, internalization of production processes and improved efficiency of key components, the processing time of some components was reduced from 2 to 3 hours to at least 10 minutes. Overall, management expects to achieve a gross profit margin of 30% to 35% between 2027 and 2029.

At the same time, the bank believes that medical surgical robots also bring advanced development opportunities to the company. Currently, the company is testing products with Da Vinci Surgical Systems. Each robot needs to be equipped with about 60 harmonic speed reducers. Although no mass production orders have been confirmed yet, if successfully certified, it will not only greatly increase the value of its stand-alone components, but also help strengthen the market's confidence in its precision and reliability.