Leaving aside policy changes, Morgan Stanley maintained the judgment that the US economy is resilient and inflation continues to fall; the election results may even bring additional benefits to economic growth. In terms of US stocks, short-term fluctuations have improved, and long-term support is improving. After the midterm elections, US stocks generally performed well. Since 1982, large-cap stocks have risen by an average of 15% to 16% six months after the midterm elections, and a one-year increase of about 22%. After the midterm elections, Morgan Stanley is still optimistic about global stocks and low-allotted core bonds: maintaining equity growth and low core fixed income. Continued investment in AI is expected to boost corporate profits and support European, American, and emerging market stock markets. The view on bonds remains essentially unchanged. Even if investors' caution about AI rises, companies will continue to borrow money to invest in digital infrastructure. In addition to AI, oil prices and multinational government debt issues continue to dominate the equity market and correlation, and this US election will not change this logic.

Zhitongcaijing · 1d ago
Leaving aside policy changes, Morgan Stanley maintained the judgment that the US economy is resilient and inflation continues to fall; the election results may even bring additional benefits to economic growth. In terms of US stocks, short-term fluctuations have improved, and long-term support is improving. After the midterm elections, US stocks generally performed well. Since 1982, large-cap stocks have risen by an average of 15% to 16% six months after the midterm elections, and a one-year increase of about 22%. After the midterm elections, Morgan Stanley is still optimistic about global stocks and low-allotted core bonds: maintaining equity growth and low core fixed income. Continued investment in AI is expected to boost corporate profits and support European, American, and emerging market stock markets. The view on bonds remains essentially unchanged. Even if investors' caution about AI rises, companies will continue to borrow money to invest in digital infrastructure. In addition to AI, oil prices and multinational government debt issues continue to dominate the equity market and correlation, and this US election will not change this logic.