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Southern Copper (SCCO) Could Be 1% Above Fair Value After Record Q3 Results

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Southern Copper (SCCO) just paired record Q3 2026 net sales and profit with an output target above 1 million tons of copper, putting its expansion projects and refining upgrades firmly in focus for investors.

Southern Copper’s share price has pulled back recently, with a 7 day share price return of 7.84% lower and a 30 day share price return down 12.95%, despite a year to date gain of 23.9%. The 5 year total shareholder return of 305.44% highlights how powerful past compounding has been as investors weigh record Q3 results, the planned output lift above 1 million tons, and a series of previously announced project and infrastructure updates.

Compare Southern Copper’s record quarter and expansion plans with peers by scanning our curated list of 16 top copper producer stocks for potential alternatives in the same theme.

Southern Copper now trades slightly above analyst targets and well ahead of many models of intrinsic value after the recent run and pullback. Is that premium simply caution mispriced, or is it discipline that has been well earned by the market?

Most Popular Narrative: 1% Overvalued

Southern Copper closed at $176.84 against a widely followed fair value estimate of $175.30. This narrative lens has the stock sitting on a small premium that keeps expectations front and center for investors weighing those record Q3 2026 numbers.

Southern Copper is pursuing a capital investment program of more than US$20.5b across Peru and Mexico, and a bearish view is that current valuation already factors in the full revenue and earnings uplift from this spending even though the assets are still under construction and not yet generating matching cash flows.

See why 56 investors see Southern Copper as 1% overvalued.

Result: Fair Value of $175.30 (OVERVALUED)

Still, if Southern Copper brings projects like Tia Maria and El Arco on stream broadly as planned and keeps cash costs near recent levels, that premium narrative could unravel fast.

Find out about the key risks to this Southern Copper narrative.

Next Steps

Does the combination of record Q3 figures, a premium price tag and ambitious copper expansion leave you excited or uneasy about Southern Copper? Move quickly from headline impressions to your own judgment by weighing both sides of the story through the 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Southern Copper?

Once you have formed a view on Southern Copper, you can widen your opportunity set with a few focused stock ideas that match different portfolio goals.