Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. (TSE:4151) Third-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year
It's been a good week for Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. (TSE:4151) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 3.2% to JP¥2,471. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥121b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at JP¥40.22 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, Kyowa Kirin's ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2027 to be JP¥539.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 10% to JP¥182. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥540.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥182 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
View our latest analysis for Kyowa Kirin
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥2,264, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kyowa Kirin at JP¥2,900 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,800. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Kyowa Kirin's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 8.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Kyowa Kirin is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Kyowa Kirin going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Kyowa Kirin that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.