Highlights of the brokers' morning meeting | 10-year treasury bonds break 1.6% GEM rebound conditions accumulate

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on the last trading day (November 4), the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 2.16% to 3686.17 points, the Shenzhen Securities Index rose 4.22% to 11335.69 points, and the GEM index rose 6.40% to 2544.73 points; the turnover of the two markets was 2037.694 billion yuan; it rose 4667 companies, fell 779 companies, rose and stopped by 118, and down 1.

Guosheng Securities believes that 10-year treasury bonds breaking 1.6% does not mean the end of the bond market; SDIC Securities believes that the GEM retracement has reached the limit of 60% in the range, and conditions for a large-scale rebound are accumulating; Cathay Pacific Haitong believes that the new housing sales policy will impact investment in the short term and promote industry stability in the long term; Huafu Securities believes that quantum technology is at the top of the six major future industries; Guojin Securities believes that wind power tenders will guide the inflection point in 2027.

Guosheng Securities: Fixed Income | 10-year treasury bonds broke 1.6%, the trend is not over

In early trading on November 4, 2026, the 10-year treasury bond yield officially broke through the 1.6% integer mark. As of early trading on November 4, the 10-year treasury bond yield officially broke through the 1.6% key integer mark, and has actually declined to near the previous low; if tax effects are taken into account, the post-tax yield has actually broken through the previous low. After breaking through, how the market will follow, whether it will adjust upward or continue the downward trend, has become the focus of attention in the current bond market.

Breaking through a critical point does not mean the end of the market; it means that the trend continues, and interest rates at the beginning of the year still have room for further decline. Judging from historical experience, after interest rates break through the integer mark, the bond market is not necessarily adjusted; it must be determined based on fundamentals, capital aspects, and the supply and demand pattern of the bond market at the time. At present, the supply of government bonds has declined somewhat, while demand for allocation from small to medium banks, insurance, etc. is still strong, and allocation-type institutions may increase their allocations at the end of the year. However, after the anchor change, the center of the interest rate system declined. Combined with the recent weakness in the equity market, the central bank's acceptance of declining interest rates may also have increased. In short, interest rates breaking through the critical position of 1.6% does not mean the end of the bond market. Judging from the current situation, the downward trend in interest rates may continue, especially during the year-end and New Year holidays. We believe that 10-year treasury bond yields still have 10-15 bp of downward space, which is expected to be around 1.50%; 30-year treasury bond yields are expected to decline to 1.80%-1.85%; and interbank deposits are expected to decline to 1.30%-1.35%.

SDIC Securities: Strategy | The ship will eventually land

What we need to face up to now is that the cumulative retracement of the GEM index since peaking at 4380.41 on June 26 has exceeded 44% (as of the beginning of November), which is clearly deeper than the biggest retracement between the “Mao Index” in 2021 and the “Ning Combination” in 2022, and has greatly exceeded the scope of our perception of the M top framework.

1. High interest rates on US bonds have caused global AI technology funding to shrink to the core AI leader in US stocks. On October 7, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.36% in the intraday period and 5.73% for the 30-year term, both of which hit the highest level since 2002. At present, the stalemate of long-term interest rates “easy to rise and difficult to fall” has substantially loosened: on October 28, the Federal Reserve FOMC kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at 10-2, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from a high point to around 4.9% on October 30, falling about 36 basis points throughout the month, but the warning of tightening liquidity has not been lifted.

2. The AI technology industry continues to be disputed, and it is not clear for the time being in 2028. This high level of uncertainty itself forms a valuation discount. The ROIC of the five major cloud vendors declined, and capital expenditure fell to the 20% to 30% year-on-year range in 2028. Free cash flow fell from 192.4 billion US dollars to 125.9 billion US dollars in 12 rolling months. Amazon and Oracle have turned negative. According to the current plan, net leverage for 2028 is only 0.6 times and interest coverage is 14 times, but a closed commercial loop requires hard evidence, and uncertainty about a sharp brake or a soft landing is a discount.

3. The entire market capital is the ultimate group in the A-share technology field, and absolute profit capital forms the second passive sales lead. Active long-term TMT holdings in 2026Q2 reached 61.9%, while Q3 still had 54.7%, electronics overallocation of 18.0% and communications 8.8%. The historical positions were all 98.3% since 2012; insurance, fixed income +, etc. passively downgraded positions after the net value retracement hit 3% and 5% risk control lines, and the balance of the two loans fell to about 2.30 trillion yuan, a decrease of 20%.

So when does the market end? In the “Bottoming Signal” weekly report, we suggest that the limit adjustment range in one round is about 60% of the increase in the previous range, and the adjustment period is 16-19 weeks. The 2015 GEM index retraced 62.8%, took about 14 weeks, and retracted 59.9% from the end of 2021 to April 2022. The current round went through about 18 natural weeks since peaking on June 26, 2026, and the range retraced to the limit level of 60%. GEM indicates PE of about 26 times, which is close to the level at the beginning of the 2024 924 market. In terms of time and space, it is already in a state of excessive decline within the historical experience range. Looking back, the easing of macroeconomic restrictions and industrial catalysis are gradually being verified, and conditions for a large-scale rebound are also accumulating.

Chips were slowly cleared in this round. The 26Q3 active public offering TMT positions fell from 61.9% to 54.7%, mainly due to falling market capitalization rather than active position reduction. The 15.5% rebound in early August is more appropriate to be viewed as a reverse draw in the process of sharp decline rather than double; if the easing of macroeconomic restrictions resonates with industrial catalytic verification, the second wave of AI technology may gradually unfold during the year. The key to seizing the top two is to shift from core beta leaders to second-tier strong α. The first direction is higher profits compared to late-tier varieties (such as domestic computing power, upstream PCB), and the second is new technology and new applications with lighter chips. When the wind stops in the mountains, the boat eventually lands.

Cathay Pacific Haitong: Real Estate | Industry Paradigm Restructuring, Corporate Anchor Renewal

Local rules have been introduced one after another to promote the implementation of a new policy for the sale of existing homes in an orderly manner. As of October 17, seven cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Tianjin, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen, have issued local rules to improve the commercial housing sales system, implemented arrangements related to improving the commercial housing sales system reform, and existing housing sales have entered the implementation stage. Judging from the rules that have been introduced, the overall framework of each city remains highly consistent. Cities are making a smooth transition between the “old and new”, using August 28 as the dividing point to set a transition period for projects in progress for the longest period until the end of 2028; at the same time, the pre-sale threshold was uniformly raised to the top of the main structure, and the entire pre-sale fund was supervised throughout the entire process. At the same time, cities are also proposing differentiated arrangements according to local conditions.

Estimating the impact of the New Deal on housing enterprises: An analysis based on local rules. In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of the new housing sales policy on the profitability, capital turnover efficiency, and capital return level of real estate development enterprises, this estimate constructs a standardized housing development project, and simulates eight types of scenarios, including traditional pre-sale, main capped pre-sale, existing housing sales, and transition policies for existing housing projects, respectively, while maintaining relatively consistent basic project conditions. We came to the following conclusions: 1) Compared with the traditional pre-sale model, the main pressure in the existing home sales scenario is a marked increase in financial pressure and a decrease in IRR; 2) rough sales and batch completion can improve IRR, but peak capital also depends on whether repayments match large payments; 3) A deposit can lock in part of the purchase price, but it cannot replace construction capital during the freeze period. 4) The existing home sales scenario is sensitive to land acquisition costs and sales prices. The current profit buffer comes from falling land prices or rising new housing prices.

The impact of the New Deal on the industry: short-term impact, long-term stability promotion. On the supply side, the New Deal raises the threshold for investment in development, and the supply of new housing is expected to shrink at an accelerated pace. Although new supply may shrink faster than demand is recovering, this does not mean that inventory will drop immediately. On the demand side, the New Deal will help reduce delivery risks, and financial support will simultaneously achieve breakthroughs. However, whether sales can stabilize in the future still requires a combination of factors such as residents' purchasing power, housing price expectations, and inventory removal. On the financial side, credit on both sides of residents' and housing enterprises contracted simultaneously. On the land side, land finance is declining, and supply mechanisms may change. In the competitive landscape, the industry is shifting from high turnover and scale expansion to competition for capital strength, product quality, and cash flow. Housing enterprises with strong capital strength, stable financing channels, and deep regional cultivation and outstanding product capabilities will benefit.

Future outlook: Promoting the high-quality development of the industry. We judge that in the future, the industry will enter a new stage of accelerated supply contraction, slow stabilization of demand, and price differentiation repair. The impact of the New Deal on the real estate market has a clear time difference: the supply contraction will accelerate in 2027. Real estate development investment and new construction space are still under downward pressure. New and second-hand housing prices in first-tier core cities are expected to take the lead in stabilizing. 2028 supply and demand rebalancing period. New supply continues to decline, and inventory pressure in some core cities has eased somewhat. The period of structural stabilization of the industry in 2029. Under the benchmark scenario, the decline in real estate development investment and new construction area has narrowed markedly, the sales area of new homes has gradually stabilized, housing prices in core cities have taken the lead in recovering, and low-energy cities are still under pressure to adjust.

Huafu Securities: Machinery & Small and Medium Cap | Quantum Technology Moves to Project Implementation

As quantum applications mature, laser systems are an indispensable core device. Based on the principles of quantum mechanics, quantum technology uses unique physical phenomena such as quantum superposition, quantum entanglement, and quantum tunneling through accurate preparation, regulation, and measurement of quantum states in microphysical systems. It mainly includes the three major fields of quantum computation, quantum communication, and quantum precision measurement. Among them: 1) Quantum computing: It has the core potential to disrupt traditional classical computing power and is a core strategic circuit for global technology competition. Currently, the quantum computing industry has not formed a unified technical route. The four major routes of superconductivity, ion traps, neutral atoms, and photonics compete in parallel, and each has advantages and disadvantages. Different technology routes have obvious differences in core hardware requirements such as light sources; 2) quantum communication: using the laws of quantum mechanics to transmit, protect, or process information, and lasers generate single photons or entangled photon pairs; 3) Quantum measurement: using characteristics such as entanglement, compression, and high-order correlation in quantum systems to manipulate and measure quantum states. Quantum time-frequency synchronization accounts for the largest share of the market, and optical clock technology is developing rapidly.

At the top of the six major future industries, the “15th Five-Year Plan” may meet a key inflection point in industrialization. Policy documents such as the outline of the “15th Five-Year Plan” all place quantum technology at the top of the future industry. At the same time, many local governments have introduced relevant plans to promote the industrialization of quantum technology: Hefei, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places have introduced special policies to promote the implementation of industrialization through measures such as setting up industrial funds, building innovation platforms, and cultivating application scenarios. According to Photon Box, the scale of the global quantum computing industry in 2025/2030/2035 or about US$6.61 billion /US$179.52 billion /US$681.71 billion, respectively; the global quantum communication security industry in 2025/2030/2035 or US$1.805 billion /US$76.795 billion, respectively; the scale of the global quantum sensing industry in 2025/2030/2035, or US$2.95 billion, respectively.

Guojin Securities: Telecom | Wind Power Quarterly Report: Profit bottomed out, 27-year inflection point

The 26Q3 wind power revenue was 66.6 billion yuan (-5.1% YoY), and the return was only 167 million (-91.4% YoY). The slowdown in delivery compounded the drag of low cost orders, raw materials, and exchange rates. With the Q3 tender for 39.7 GW (+32%), the average price of land wind rebounded, and the 27-year delivery of the high-price order released the flexibility of the whole machine. Submarine cable acceptance has been accelerated, and parts are temporarily under pressure. Identify sector risks and focus on undervalued machines and offshore cables/pipe piles.