Warrior Met Coal Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Warrior Met Coal (NYSE:HCC) reported third-quarter financial results on Wednesday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.

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Summary

Warrior Met Coal reported strong financial results for Q3 2026, with net income of $49 million and adjusted EBITDA of $124 million, driven by higher sales volumes and improved pricing.

The company declared a $2 per share special dividend, supported by significant free cash flow generation and a strengthened balance sheet.

Blue Creek’s contribution has been pivotal, with production ramping up ahead of schedule and positively impacting cash flow and inventory levels.

Mine 7 faced production challenges that led to increased cash costs, but these issues are expected to be resolved going forward.

The company remains focused on shareholder returns and plans to continue assessing market conditions before expanding Blue Creek with a second longwall.

Full Transcript

Drew (Conference Call Operator)

Good afternoon, my name is Drew and I will be your conference call operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Warrior Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results conference call. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If you require assistance, please press star then zero. This call is being recorded and will be available for replay on the Company’s website.

I would like to turn the call over to Brian Chopin, Chief Accounting Officer and Controller. Please go ahead.

Brian Chopin (Senior Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer and Controller)

Good afternoon and welcome everyone to Warrior’s third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Before we begin, let me remind you that certain statements made during this call, including statements relating to our expected future business and financial performance, may be considered forward-looking statements according to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Forward-looking statements, by their nature, address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain.

These uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the Company’s annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC, may cause our actual future results to be materially different from those expected in our forward-looking statements. We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or otherwise, except as may be required by law. For more information regarding forward-looking statements, please refer to the Company’s press releases and SEC filings.

We’ll also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are defined and reconciled to comparable GAAP financial measures in our third quarter press release furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K, which is also posted on our website. Additionally, we will be filing our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the SEC this afternoon. You can find additional information regarding the Company on our website at www.warriormetcoal.com, which also includes a third quarter supplemental slide deck that was posted this afternoon.

Today on the call with me are Mr. Walt Scheller, Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Dale Boyles, Chief Financial Officer. After our formal remarks, we’ll be happy to answer any questions. With that, I’ll now turn the call over to Walt.

Walt Scheller (Chief Executive Officer)

Thanks, Brian. Hello everyone and thank you for taking the time to join us today to discuss our third quarter 2026 results. I’ll start by providing an overview of the quarter before Dale reviews our results in additional detail. Warrior delivered strong third quarter results to demonstrate the progress we are making in the next phase of our growth strategy. Higher volumes from Blue Creek, improved pricing and disciplined execution generated significant free cash flow, strengthened our balance sheet and supported the Board’s declaration of a $2 per share special dividend.

Approximately one year after commencing longwall operations at Blue Creek, eight months ahead of schedule, we’re already seeing this transformational investment contribute to meaningful cash generation and enhance our ability to return excess cash to stockholders. From a steelmaking coal market perspective, the third quarter 2026 was shaped by a number of events, including, most significantly, the Chinese government’s response to the tragic mining incident in China. The resulting safety inspections and production restrictions reduced domestic coking coal availability and drove Chinese steelmaking coal and coke prices materially higher. This reopened the arbitrage between China’s CFR and the Australian FOB indices and led to renewed Chinese buying of premium seaborne steelmaking coal.

Pricing increased more than we had expected, particularly during September, despite steel fundamentals remaining relatively weak. The quarter also provided further evidence of the continued vulnerability of metallurgical coal supply chains. A U.S. mine fire negatively impacted the availability of High Vol A coals, with the disruption expected to continue into 2027. Mongolian border crossings also declined materially during the second half of September because of diesel fuel shortages and other restrictions. These events, together with Chinese production constraints, supported a supply-driven rally even as broader spot demand remained relatively weak.

The World Steel Association reported recently that global pig iron production declined during the first nine months of 2026 by 2% as compared to the same period last year. India continued to show growth with a 3.1% increase year over year, while China remained the primary source of weakness with a 3% decrease in production as the country continues to grapple with soft internal demand and weak steel margins. This regional split remains consistent with the broader market narrative, with resilient demand in India and other parts of Asia offset by continued softness in China and an uneven recovery across developed markets.

Against that backdrop, our primary index, the PLV FOB Australia, averaged $225 per short ton during the third quarter, an increase of $9 per ton from the second quarter average of $216. The increase was concentrated in September when the index averaged $252 per ton. The average index price in this year’s third quarter was 36% higher than $166 per short ton in the third quarter of last year. The PLV CFR China index experienced an even greater increase, averaging $243 per ton for the third quarter compared to $212 in the second quarter of this year, clearly reflecting the reopening of the arbitrage due to stronger Chinese domestic pricing.

Second tier indices also increased during the third quarter, although they continued to trade at meaningful discounts to the PLV. The Australian LV HCC index averaged $192 per short ton, equivalent to 86% of the PLV, compared to 79% in the second quarter of this year. The U.S. East Coast HVA index averaged $155 per short ton, equivalent to 69% of the PLV, compared to 66% during the second quarter of this year. HVA pricing benefited from renewed trades into China.

However, the broader spot market for second tier steelmaking coals remained relatively weak. The average U.S. East Coast HVA index price in this year’s third quarter was 10% higher than the $141 per short ton in the third quarter of last year. Our gross price realization was 66% for the third quarter, consistent with the second quarter and compared to 83% in the third quarter 2025. Although our realizations have been fairly consistent for the first nine months this year, the year-over-year change reflects several factors. First, while our main pricing indices were higher, freight rates to Asia and demurrage rates were significantly higher, reflecting the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as well as production and logistics disruptions during the quarter.

Second, our product mix continued to evolve, with the mix of High Vol A products sold increasing by 25 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year, reflecting the growing contribution from Blue Creek. Lastly, our third quarter 2026 realizations were impacted by the one-time monetization of surplus inventories at fixed rather than index-linked pricing. Turning back to our financial results, Warrior achieved third quarter sales volume of 3.5 million short tons, an increase of 48% from the prior year quarter, primarily reflecting the successful ramp-up of Blue Creek. Our third quarter sales volume mix was 68% High Vol A and 32% premium low-vol. This represents a 25 percentage point increase in High Vol A volumes over the prior year’s third quarter. During the third quarter we took advantage of a one-time opportunity to monetize our surplus High Vol A coal inventories that had accumulated from the early startup of Blue Creek.

In the early part of the second quarter we entered into fixed-price contracts to sell approximately 550,000 tons based upon the market conditions and pricing outlook at the time. While subsequent market developments, including the Chinese mining accident in May, supported seaborne steelmaking coal prices at higher levels for longer than originally anticipated, the transactions generated approximately $49 million of cash, reduced surplus tons and further normalized our inventory position following the Blue Creek startup.

Monetizing the surplus volume reduced our average net selling price by approximately $8 per ton during the quarter based upon our average third quarter High Vol A selling price. The monetization also reduced adjusted EBITDA by approximately $27 million compared to the amount that would have been realized had those tons been sold at the average price. Our steelmaking coal inventories decreased to 967,000 short tons at the end of September of this year compared to 1.4 million tons at the end of June 2026. Our sales by geography for the third quarter break down as 55% into Asia, 35% into Europe and 10% into South America. Our spot volume was 12% for the third quarter 2026. Sales volumes in the Pacific Basin were 55% this quarter compared to 38% in the third quarter 2025, primarily reflecting the demand growth from India and other Southeast Asian countries combined with the higher volumes from Blue Creek.

Production volume for the third quarter increased 36% to 3.1 million short tons compared to 2.2 million in the same quarter last year, driven by the continued contribution from Blue Creek. At Mine 7, production was lower sequentially as we completed a longwall move and encountered challenging mining and geological conditions as we finished the prior longwall panel and began production on the new panel. At Mine 7, production was 309,000 tons, or 22% lower than the second quarter, which resulted in lower fixed cost absorption and increased our overall cash cost per short ton by approximately $11.

I’ll now ask Dale to address our third quarter results in greater detail.

Dale W Boyles (Chief Financial Officer)

Thanks, Walt. We were Pleased with our financial results for the third quarter 2026, which reflected strong volume growth, improved pricing and significant free cash flow generation. These results further strengthened our financial position and supported the Board’s declaration of the $2 per share special dividend in addition to our regular quarterly dividend. Now let me walk through the third quarter financial results in greater detail. Warrior recorded net income of $49 million, or $0.93 per diluted share, in the third quarter this year compared to net income of $37 million, or $0.70 per diluted share, in the same quarter of 2025. We reported adjusted EBITDA of $124 million compared to $71 million in the same quarter, an increase of 76%. Our adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 24% in the third quarter of 2026 compared to 22% in the same quarter of last year. On a per-ton basis, our adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 18% to $36 per short ton for the third quarter of 2026 compared to $30 in last year’s third quarter.

The primary drivers of these improvements were a 48% increase in sales volumes and a 6% increase in average net selling prices, partially offset by a 4% increase in cash cost. Total revenues were $508 million compared to $329 million in the same quarter of last year. The total increase of $179 million was primarily due to the impact of higher sales volumes of $157 million and the impact of an increase in average gross selling prices of $113 million.

These positive items were partially offset by the impact of a 25 percentage point higher mix of high volatiles sold, which had a negative impact on revenues of $47 million. In addition, the demurrage and other charges were $14 million higher compared to last year’s third quarter, which lowered overall revenues. The one-time inventory monetization also lowered total revenues by approximately $27 million. This resulted in an average net selling price of $144 per short ton in the third quarter of 2026 compared to $136 in the third quarter of last year.

Overall demurrage and freight rates were 44% and 22% higher, respectively, than in the prior-year quarter. Both were impacted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, while demurrage expenses also reflected lower-than-planned Mine 7 production and several temporary transportation and vessel loading disruptions during the quarter. Our river system was unavailable for much of the third quarter while the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers completed critical lock repairs.

This disruption, combined with high demand for our brands, elevated freight rates, the multi-day impact of Tropical Storm Bertha, a complete four-day power outage, and maintenance at the McDuffie Terminal resulted in higher-than-average demurrage expenses. Looking ahead, additional planned river and ship loader outages together with elevated freight and demurrage rates are expected to keep demurrage and freight costs above normal through year-end and possibly longer.

These planned outages and elevated rates are already incorporated into our current operating plans and full-year guidance. Cash cost of sales were $366 million, or 73% of mining revenues, in the third quarter of this year compared to $237 million, or 74% of mining revenues, in the third quarter of last year. Of the $129 million increase, approximately $114 million was attributable to the 48% increase in sales volumes, with the remaining $15 million primarily reflecting lower-than-planned Mine 7 production and higher transportation royalty cost. Lower Mine 7 production resulted in lower fixed cost absorption, increasing our overall cash cost by approximately $7 per ton.

Higher transportation royalty cost, driven by higher average steelmaking coal price indices, increased cash cost by approximately $6 per ton, while inflationary cost increases in materials and supplies added approximately $2 per ton. These cost pressures were partially offset by the leverage of the growing contribution of lower-cost Blue Creek volumes, which reduced cash costs by approximately $8 per ton, and the Section 45X production tax credit, which provided an additional benefit of approximately $3 per ton.

The impact of these factors increased our cash cost of sales per short ton FOB port by approximately $4 per ton to $105 in the third quarter from $101 in the same quarter last year. Cash margins per short ton increased 10% to $39 from $35 in the same quarter of last year as higher selling prices more than offset the increase in unit cost. Our third quarter 2026 SG&A expenses were $14 million and were $3 million lower than the same quarter of 2025, primarily due to lower employee-related expenses, including stock-based compensation. Depreciation and depletion expenses were $68 million in the third quarter, an increase of 56% from the prior-year quarter, primarily due to the additional Blue Creek assets placed into service and 48% higher sales volumes.

Now let us turn to cash flows. Cash flows from operating activities were $166 million, an increase of $61 million from the prior-year quarter, driven primarily by higher revenues and strong operating performance. Working capital provided $34 million of cash, primarily reflecting the monetization of surplus steelmaking coal inventories and strong accounts receivable collections, partially offset by equipment deposits and higher receivables associated with the Section 45X production tax credit.

After $27 million of capital expenditures, we generated free cash flow of $139 million. As discussed on our second quarter earnings call in early August, Warrior has entered the next phase of its growth strategy focused on free cash flow generation, balance sheet strength and long-term shareholder returns. Our third quarter cash generation increased total liquidity to $578 million, consisting of $437 million of cash and cash equivalents and $141 million available under our ABL facility.

Finally, let me turn to our full-year 2026 outlook. Customer reception and adoption of Blue Creek volumes have continued to exceed our expectations. Based upon our year-to-date performance and current operating outlook, we are reaffirming the full-year guidance provided last quarter as detailed in our earnings release. I’ll now turn it back to Walt for his final comments.

Walt Scheller (Chief Executive Officer)

In summary, Warrior delivered another strong quarter. Higher sales volumes and improved pricing generated significant free cash flow and further strengthen our balance sheet and liquidity. The Board’s declaration of the special dividend marks an important milestone and demonstrates our commitment to disciplined capital allocation and long-term stockholder returns. Looking ahead, we expect steelmaking coal prices to remain supportive in the near term, although below the September peak, as recent supply disruptions are balanced against uneven global steel demand. The market will remain extremely sensitive to Chinese government actions. Continuation of the current safety restrictions would support domestic and seaborne pricing, while any relaxation of those measures could allow Chinese coal production to recover and place downward pressure on the market.

We also expect that overall and persistent weakness in Chinese domestic steel demand, as demonstrated by low producer margins, will provide resistance to steelmaking coal pricing. We also expect second-tier steelmaking coals to remain discounted relative to the PLV. Outside China, supply conditions remain mixed. Australian exports have increased compared with last year, and the continued ramp-up of select Queensland mines should improve premium steelmaking coal availability. Mongolian border crossings should recover as the diesel shortage is resolved. However, the extended U.S. mine disruption is expected to continue to limit certain U.S. high volatile coal supply through at least the first half of 2027. These competing factors should keep the market volatile and responsive to short-term supply developments.

Warrior enters the environment from a position of increased strength. Blue Creek has expanded our production base, and its growing contribution is enhancing our ability to generate cash across a range of market conditions. Together with our high-quality assets and low first quartile cost position, this provides a strong foundation as we continue to optimize production, control cost, strengthen our balance sheet and return excess cash to stockholders while preserving the flexibility to pursue attractive long-term opportunities.

With that, we’d like to open the call for questions. Operator.

OPERATOR

Thank you. At this time I would like to remind everyone that to ask a question please press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. We will pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. First question comes from Nick Giles with B. Riley. Please go ahead.

Nick Giles (Analyst at B. Riley)

Yeah. Hey. Good afternoon, guys. Was hoping you could just kind of break out some of the cost pressures you’re seeing. Obviously costs were a little more elevated this quarter than last. Could you just break that down by how much of that is input cost inflation? How much was attributable to the volume dynamic and maybe the royalties as well? Thank you.

Dale W Boyles (Chief Financial Officer)

Yeah, thanks, Nick, this is Dale. Yeah, I tried to outline that in our prepared remarks. You know, the biggest contributor this quarter — and depends on what quarter you’re comparing it to, right — but this quarter compared to last quarter, the second quarter, you know, Mine 7 lower production, really, we didn’t get the cost leverage, and that was about 7 bucks a ton. I’m sorry, that was $11 versus the second quarter. And then transportation royalties, right, those are variable, and those go up with met coal prices.

So that was about six bucks. And then inflation is about two. You know, we’ve been saying that we are seeing inflation in the aggregate starting to impact us. No one item is material, but when they add it up, you’re looking at a couple bucks. So, you know, as we move forward, I would say, you know, with the spike in met coal prices in September — that was the month that peaked the most — you know, that’s carrying over into the fourth quarter. So you would see higher cost in the fourth quarter because of transportation royalties, the variable cost, some inflation, and, you know, so those kind of things we would expect to continue to see. As far as royalties — yeah, and that covered the royalties.

So demurrage. Demurrage is another one. You know, with the rates there being so much higher than they have been — 44% higher — and with some of the disruption we had at the port, you know, we’ll probably have some of that again in the fourth quarter because of the hurricane. We were down for four days, or the port was down for four days, and we didn’t get to load some vessels. So we’ll have some incremental demurrage there. We’ll try to make up that volume, but we’ll definitely have some more demurrage.

And we see those rates continuing to be high until some of the situation is resolved in the Middle East that hopefully will get resolved and lower some of these freight and demurrage rates back to normal.

Nick Giles (Analyst at B. Riley)

No, it’s very helpful, Dale. I appreciate the additional clarification. I guess just on the point of Mine 7, were there any specific drivers that led to the lower volumes this quarter? And then how do you see that? Should we expect that to revert here in 4Q to kind of some of the output levels we’ve seen in the first two quarters? Thanks.

Walt Scheller (Chief Executive Officer)

This is Walt. Yeah. My expectation is things get back closer to what we would expect. Normally we had a longwall. Well, actually, both longwalls were approaching areas where the geology got a little more difficult. And normally we’ll have one longwall kind of in a sweet spot when the other one’s in a difficult spot. So we can just run one a little harder than the other. This time we had both of them in a little bit of a thinner coal or tougher conditions and we had to work our way through that in the quarter and we did that and we should be in better shape now.

Dick

Great, great. I’ll turn it over for now, guys. But I appreciate the update.

Walt Scheller (Chief Executive Officer)

Thanks, Dick.

OPERATOR

Thank you. Thank you. The next question comes from George with UBS. Please go ahead.

George (Analyst at UBS)

Yeah, good evening, guys. Thanks for the update. Looks pretty good and clean here. Just a quick one on the tariff of US imports into China. If that was to be removed, would you guys sell anything into China potentially? Or, Walter, I guess, do you envisage that as a potential tailwind to your realized price if some of your peers sell High Vol A that was historically going into India into China instead?

Walt Scheller (Chief Executive Officer)

I think if the tariffs went away and there were spot opportunities, we would look at those spot opportunities and determine if we had the additional volume and we thought those opportunities were really good opportunities, we would certainly consider them. I think right now, given our current customer base, the absorption of any additional tons we could come up with would probably be taken by those customers before we would do anything else. But sure, we’d look at it.

Dale W Boyles (Chief Financial Officer)

Yeah, I think, George, the arbitrage would have to be, you know, wide enough to think about the freight differential. Right. Is it going to be more profitable to sell to India or China, you know, based on what that arb is, how much of it covers the freight and, you know, where is it most profitable? We’re here to make money, not sell coal.

George (Analyst at UBS)

Okay. No, thanks. One more, Walt as well. Sorry, Dale. Working cap. Any guidance for Q — is a flat sort of cash assumption best given we’ve seen a bit of an unwind this quarter?

Dale W Boyles (Chief Financial Officer)

Yeah. I think now that we’ve normalized our inventory levels, I think working capital should be flattish. You know, there might be some up and downs just with AR depending on pricing and volumes, but I think we’re kind of getting to a level now that it’ll be steady and stable.

George (Analyst at UBS)

Okay, now that makes sense. And then just clarifying that Mine 7 underperformance you were talking about before — was that $7 or $11 a short ton quarter-on-quarter? I think you maybe got me a bit confused there before, Dale. And then just secondly, if you can, can you talk through how that actually happens? Is it quite literally just lower denominator? Is that the only thing? I’m just trying to back calculate if there’s some sort of more meaningful cost creep coming in.

That’s all.

Dale W Boyles (Chief Financial Officer)

The impact coming from the second quarter to the third quarter had $11 per ton impact. But when you compare to last year’s third quarter, that was a $7 impact when you compare those two different periods. And I think I answered your question actually earlier on the previous question. We talked about the inflation. Right. Transportation royalties continue to be higher given met coal prices. So we’ll see those kind of things continue into the fourth quarter, which puts us right there on track with our overall cost guidance for the year.

OPERATOR

Thank you. The next question comes from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Katja Jancic (Analyst at BMO Capital Markets)

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. We were just staying on the cost side very quickly. I think you said that the issues at Mine 7 are now behind you. Is that correct?

Walt Scheller (Chief Executive Officer)

Yes. Yeah, they’re operating normally.

Katja Jancic (Analyst at BMO Capital Markets)

So wouldn’t that mean that then the headwind on the cost side should basically be reduced now if Mine 7 operates at normal rates?

Dale W Boyles (Chief Financial Officer)

For that particular item, yes. But we’ll continue to see transportation, royalties, higher inflation — those kind of things.

Katja Jancic (Analyst at BMO Capital Markets)

Right. And maybe on the price realization side, I think some of the freight costs have eased a bit in recent weeks. How should we think about price realization in 4Q? What are the moving pieces there?

Walt Scheller (Chief Executive Officer)

Well, the movement in prices and the movement in freight rates. I mean, just, you know, while prices have descended on the PLV, the High Vol A index went up three bucks last week. So those are the moving pieces. And the freight rates, obviously, yes, we’ve seen those ease a little bit, but they’re still averaging significantly higher than the low to mid $30 range, which would be more like normal about two, three years ago.

Katja Jancic (Analyst at BMO Capital Markets)

Okay, thank you.

OPERATOR

Thank you again. If you have a question, please press star then one. The next question comes from Nathan Martin with StoneX. Please go ahead.

Nathan Martin (Analyst at StoneX)

Thanks, operator. Good afternoon, guys. Maybe thinking about your pricing for the fourth quarter in a different way. You called out your gross price realizations were 66% in 3Q. I think that was the same as the second quarter. Is that kind of a good way to think about 4Q or could that actually, you know, even improve some just given you won’t have the one-time inventory sales of the Blue Creek tons you mentioned? Would just be helpful to get your thoughts on how you guys see the sales mix by quality as well in the fourth quarter.

Dale W Boyles (Chief Financial Officer)

Yeah, thanks, Nate. I think directionally that’s probably a good, you know, a good place to start because, you know, when you have prices going up, we still see these meaningful differences in the price indices. Right. The relativities have been staying in that range. I was up slightly in the third quarter from the second. I think that’s just a good starting point right there, just given where these relativities have been over the last few quarters.

So I think it’s been five quarters, six quarters now.

Nathan Martin (Analyst at StoneX)

Okay, great. Dale, any thoughts on sales mix by quality for the fourth quarter?

Walt Scheller (Chief Executive Officer)

Hey, no, Adam, this is Walt. The sales mix, High Vol versus Low Vol, ought to be about the same as it was in the third quarter.

Nathan Martin (Analyst at StoneX)

Okay, thanks for that, Walt. And then, Dale, I apologize if I missed this when you were giving the rundown earlier on the cost items for the quarter. But how much do you think the logistics disruptions you talked about added to the cash cost per ton in 3Q? And then how much do you think of that is sticky through the year? And as you talked about, you still might be running into some of those issues.

Dale W Boyles (Chief Financial Officer)

Well, you know, on the demurrage side, I think it’s what you’re referring to, you know, that was up about $3 million from the second quarter and significantly more versus last year. And we’ve been running that way this year because demurrage rates are up, I believe, 22% this year. So whenever you have any of these disruptions, I mean, combined, it was hard to break out which one contributed the most. It just, it adds up. Right. During the third quarter, you know, we had just different things happening there.

Not only with the rates being higher, but you had the tropical storm, the power outage, the maintenance — all those things just added up. Now, coming into the fourth quarter, we’re going to have similar kind of things, right? We had the hurricane in early October that pushed some vessels out, so we didn’t get those loaded. We’re going to try to make up that volume, but we’re still going to incur the demurrage. It’s just hopefully less than we would have. The river is going to be low again in September and October, so that’s behind us now, so that’s improving.

And, you know, that’s kind of what we’re seeing here in the short term, probably for the next quarter or so, maybe another quarter after that, just depending on how quickly some of this situation with Iran helps improve the overall freight market.

Nathan Martin (Analyst at StoneX)

All right, very helpful, guys. Appreciate the time. Continue best of luck.

Dale W Boyles (Chief Financial Officer)

Thanks, Nate.

OPERATOR

Thank you. The next question comes from Matthew Key with Texas Capital. Please go ahead.

Matthew Key (Analyst at Texas Capital)

Good afternoon and thanks for taking my question. Most of mine were touched on, but I guess I wanted to ask about just longer-term capital allocation strategy. Assuming the market cooperates, cash flow could be really attractive over the next couple of years, even with some of these inflationary pressures. You could obviously return a lot of that to shareholders, but you could also pursue additional volume growth, maybe in the form of M&A or adding the second longwall at Blue Creek.

Do you have a view on what is a better return to shareholders kind of in the current market, but from like a longer-term perspective?

Walt Scheller (Chief Executive Officer)

Well, I think for right now, what we said is, look, we expect our excess cash flow to go back to shareholders. You know, we’ve got to ramp up Blue Creek to its full potential. We’ve always said, look, there’s even more potential there with the second longwall. I think we need to see that the market can absorb those additional tons before we would go in that direction. And that has a lead time on it, right, of a few years. So for now, I think we’re going to be looking at returns to shareholders until we see something significantly changing the market.

Matthew Key (Analyst at Texas Capital)

Got it. No, that’s super helpful. Appreciate the time. And that’s it for me. Good luck moving forward.

Walt Scheller (Chief Executive Officer)

Thanks, Matt.

OPERATOR

Thank you. The next question is a follow-up from Nick Giles with B. Riley. Please go ahead.

Nick Giles (Analyst at B. Riley)

Hey, thanks for taking my follow-up. I just wanted to ask maybe more directly on the capital return front, you know, what price level in the equity do you need to see before you’re ready to step in and kind of be more aggressive on the buyback front? I mean, the stock’s now 26% off the August highs. Your operations certainly haven’t gotten 26% worse. So I would think it’s a good time to look at that. But curious for your perspective.

Dale W Boyles (Chief Financial Officer)

Thanks, Nick. Yeah, we are always looking at that. When we look at capital allocation and discuss it with our board, you know, we don’t — we haven’t set thresholds of a target price that says we’ll do one thing or the other. We look at things more broadly than just that. So it’s to be determined as we go forward, talking to the board every quarter and depending on what cash gets generated.

Nick Giles (Analyst at B. Riley)

No, fair enough, Dale. And it was good to see the special dividend. I guess maybe just switching gears, if I could. Could you just speak to some of the opportunities you’re seeing in Europe? Are you seeing any blast furnace restarts really taking shape and, you know, could there be additional pull on US coals over the coming quarters?

Walt Scheller (Chief Executive Officer)

You know, I think Europe is kind of mixed, but I do think there’s some — what we said were green shoots. I do think that Europe is doing fairly well. They’re taking their tons. They’re taking spot tons. We have requests for additional tons. So I do think Europe is — it’s mixed, but I think stronger than we would have thought if we were looking at it nine months ago.

Nick Giles (Analyst at B. Riley)

That’s good to hear, Walt. And then I’ll sneak one more in if I could. I think you were speaking to you want to wait until the market’s ready to absorb the tons of Blue Creek that could come from the second longwall. But just curious on how you’re thinking about ramping up this first longwall. I think year to date, it’s at about a 5 million ton run rate, but you have spoken in the past about the ability to run closer to that 6 to 7 million ton range.

So as we think out to 2027, where should we expect Blue Creek to shake out?

Walt Scheller (Chief Executive Officer)

I think some of the things we’ve done this year, we added the additional continuous miner unit. As we run this mine and run it at substantial levels, we’re getting to see where are the bottlenecks and do we have any problems from the coal preparation standpoint, and working our way through those. So now it’s just kind of incrementally figuring out, bottleneck by bottleneck, how do we tweak the system to get us beyond where we are today and where we think the potential capacity is.

And, you know, as we’ve said, market reception has been great. And we’ll continue to see what we can do with that one longwall. It’s just going to take a little bit of time for us to figure it out and to get it developed. And then we’ll be watching the market carefully and seeing what’s going on to determine do we need, or should we add, that second longwall, or if bringing out that first longwall is about what the market needs.

Dale W Boyles (Chief Financial Officer)

Let me just add a little something to that, Nick. I think when you’re thinking about ’27, you know, we put 5 million tons in the guidance this year. When we update our guidance at the end of the second quarter. So all of that is going well. So we would expect volumes to be better next year. We just don’t have a final number yet, as we’re working through the budget and getting ready to have that meeting, discussion with the board to get that approved for next year.

So we’d expect it to be higher than where we’re going to be in ’26. That’s all I can give you right now at this moment.

Nick Giles (Analyst at B. Riley)

Understood. No, that’s very helpful, both. Thanks for taking all my questions, and congrats on all the progress.

Walt Scheller (Chief Executive Officer)

Thanks a lot. We appreciate it.

OPERATOR

Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Scheller for any comments.

Walt Scheller (Chief Executive Officer)

That concludes our call this afternoon. Thank you again for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Warrior Met Coal.

OPERATOR

Thank you. And that concludes today’s conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

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