CAVA Earnings Preview: Kalshi Traders Bet on Cyclospora Talk as Sales Recovery Faces Test

CAVA Group Inc. (NYSE:CAVA) reports third-quarter earnings Wednesday after the bell, with investors watching whether customers have returned following a summer food-safety scare.

Wall Street expects earnings of $0.12 per share on revenue of $358.4 million. Analysts forecast same-restaurant sales growth of 3.6%, down from 9% last quarter.

On Kalshi, traders are betting on which words CEO Brett Schulman and his team will say during the earnings call.

What Kalshi Predicts

“Same Restaurant/Same Store” leads Kalshi’s board at 97%, followed by “Traffic” at 96%.

CAVA’s established restaurants enjoyed 9% sales growth last quarter, helped by a 5.3% increase in customer visits. But a Cyclospora scare involving contaminated lettuce subsequently frightened off diners, sending sales growth to barely above zero.

CAVA said its ingredients were not involved, and sales growth recovered to the mid-single digits by early August. Investors now want to know whether that recovery continued.

‘Cyclospora/Cyclosporiasis’ trades at roughly 60%. The CDC declared the outbreak over September 11.

“Salmon” sits at 96%, while “Shrimp” trades at 63%.

Management said its April salmon launch boosted sales mix but contributed to a 60-basis-point decline in restaurant-level profit margin, alongside delivery costs and wage investments.

CAVA also completed a market test of Roasted Garlic Shrimp. Investors will want to know whether another seafood launch could lift sales without further squeezing margins.

“Expansion” trades at 83%. CAVA opened its 500th restaurant in September and says it’s ahead of schedule to exceed 1,000 by 2032. With sales growth slowing at existing locations, investors will be watching whether new openings can keep driving revenue higher.

“Catering” trades at 78%. CAVA planned to expand its Houston pilot into a second market this fall, testing whether restaurants can handle large orders without disrupting regular service.

“AI” sits at 71%, while “CavaCore” trades at 62%. Management says its internal data platform already speeds up financial analysis, with plans to use the technology to improve staffing, inventory management and restaurant efficiency.

What Wall Street Is Watching

UBS forecasts third-quarter same-restaurant sales growth near 3%, below consensus, but sees fourth-quarter trends potentially accelerating toward the 4.6% consensus.

Options traders are pricing in a roughly 12.3% earnings move, equivalent to about $7.40 per share at Tuesday’s $60.31 closing price.

CAVA maintained full-year same-restaurant sales guidance of 4.5% to 6.5% in August. Even a third-quarter result near UBS’s forecast would leave that range within reach, shifting attention to whether management raises its outlook.

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