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Wed, Nov 04, 2026
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American International Group, Inc. (NYSE:AIG) reported a quarter defined by profitability growth and the strategic reallocation of capital across its global insurance portfolio. Management emphasized a commitment to underwriting discipline, leading to the withdrawal of previous top-line growth guidance in response to deteriorating conditions in specific market segments like property and casualty large accounts. The company reported significant progress in its investment strategy, with 90% of the core fixed income portfolio turning over in two years to capture higher yields. Operating efficiency remained a primary objective, with management targeting a sub-30% expense ratio by 2027 through technological integration and streamlined executive reporting. Capital management continued to focus on returning excess value to shareholders while maintaining a strong balance sheet to support potential inorganic growth opportunities.
Operator: Good day, and welcome to AIG's third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. This conference is being recorded. Now at this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Quentin John McMillan. Please go ahead.
Quentin John McMillan: Thanks very much, Michael, and good morning. Today's remarks may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and are based on management's current expectations. AIG's filings with the SEC provide details on important factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially. Except as required by applicable securities laws, AIG is under no obligation to update any forward-looking statements if circumstances or management's estimates or opinions should change. Today's remarks may also refer to non GAAP financial measures.
The reconciliation of such measures to the most comparable GAAP figures is included in our earnings release, financial supplement and earnings presentation all of which are available on our website at aig.com. Finally, today's remarks related to net premiums written growth are presented on a constant dollar basis. Please refer to Page 25 of the earnings presentation for reconciliation of such metrics. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to our President and CEO, Eric Andersen.
Eric Andersen: Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. In the third quarter, AIG delivered strong profitability and premium growth. Reflecting the benefits of our diverse global portfolio. As we enter the final months of the year with solid momentum, we continue to believe we are well positioned to achieve the financial objectives we outlined at our 2025 Investor Day. On today's call, I will review our third quarter financial highlights, provide perspective on the current market and how we are deploying our strong balance sheet to advance our strategic priorities.
Share how we are further aligning AIG with the needs of our clients and partners, enabled by our deep bench of talent discuss how we are managing AI as both an emerging risk and an opportunity. And outline our aspiration for AIG to be a top performing company. Keith Francis Walsh will then provide more detail on our financial performance, and Jon Hancock will join us for the Q&A. Turning to our third quarter financial results, Adjusted after tax income per diluted share was $2.60, and adjusted after tax income was $1.1 billion Core operating ROE was 11.1%. Underwriting income was $564 million Accident year underwriting income ex-cat was $756 million. The accident year combined ratio ex-cat was 88.4%.
The calendar year combined ratio was 91.3%. Net premiums written increased 8% from the prior-year quarter, or 10% excluding North America property. Reflecting growth across our global commercial and global personal insurance businesses. Global commercial insurance net premiums written increased 7% from the prior-year quarter. North America commercial insurance net premiums written increased 2% from the prior-year quarter driven by retail casualty and financial lines. Excluding Property, net premiums written increased 6%. International commercial insurance net premiums written increased 13% from the prior-year quarter, supported by broad based geographic growth. Global personal insurance net premiums written increased 9% from the prior-year quarter, driven by growth in our high net worth and accident and health businesses.
Net investment income on an adjusted pretax income basis was $1.1 billion which Keith will discuss in further detail shortly. Finally, we returned $787 million in capital to our shareholders in the quarter. Including $527 million in share repurchases and $260 million in dividends. Our third quarter performance rounds out an outstanding first 9 months of 2026. We are growing profitably and building momentum across our global businesses. Through the first 9 months of the year, compared to the same period last year, net premiums written grew 11%.
Underwriting income exceeded $2 billion Our calendar year combined ratio improved 140 basis points to 89.2% The accident year combined ratio ex cat improved 50 basis points to 87.7% and our core operating ROE improved 50 basis points to 11.4% and we returned $2.5 billion in capital to shareholders through share repurchase and dividends. Overall, this is excellent performance. Driven by our talented colleagues and the continued successful execution of our strategy. Next, I would like to spend a few minutes on the current market environment. Serving clients in more than 200 countries and jurisdictions, gives us a unique view of just how dynamic the market is today.
Conditions vary significantly from 1 line of business to the next, and from 1 country to another. that is where our diversified global portfolio becomes a meaningful competitive advantage. Giving us the flexibility to pursue profitable growth where conditions are favorable and seek to reduce exposure where pricing and terms no longer adequately reflect risk. Let me share a few examples of where we are becoming more selective as well as where we are actively driving growth. In North America commercial insurance, as we have discussed in recent quarters, new entrants and excess capacity have intensified competition in our Lexington business. Particularly in property and increasingly in casualty.
We have been very proactive in our response since those trends began, directing growth in Lexington toward the middle market and small and medium enterprise segments, while reducing our participation in property and casualty large accounts. Which are facing the greatest pressure. Lexington is an important part of our portfolio and we remain committed to the E&S channel. We are actively managing the business through the cycle, balancing targeted growth focusing on renewals. And being very selective on new business. In North America financial lines, we are seeing rate stabilization and pricing that is essentially flat.
We are closely watching the reps and warranties market, which over the last few years has seen a rise in claims related to the loosening of terms and conditions. We are proactively working with brokers and clients on appropriate solutions to align pricing, coverage, risk. Reps and warranties insurance is a critical product for M&A transactions. And for AIG. And we intend to remain a leading provider. In energy, our focus is on ensuring price keeps pace with risk. AIG is a global leader in energy with significant experience navigating market cycles. Today, the sector is volatile. With elevated loss activity and inflation continuing to drive loss costs higher yet new capacity is pushing overall market rates lower.
We are responding by deploying capacity where risk is priced appropriately remain committed to leading the energy insurance sector on terms that are sustainable for the industry and for our clients. Being selective in these areas allows us to focus our capital and capabilities on opportunities with attractive risk adjusted returns. For example, in global specialty, we are bringing together our teams from across AIG to support AI and digital infrastructure projects aligned with our risk appetite. For large complex data centers, construction is often the first line of business we secure. Opening the door for us to demonstrate our end to end capabilities and expand our business.
This success has made construction 1 of our fastest growing lines within the global specialty business. In addition to construction, AIG broadly offers 1 of the market's most comprehensive and integrated multiline propositions for data centers including marine cargo, cyber, property and casualty insurance. Talbot adds specialist capability in areas such as political violence and terrorism. We are seeing a positive response from clients to our broad suite of services. Which supports their needs across the full life cycle of a data center. Turning to global personal, our accident and health team is successfully leveraging the scale of our global commercial business and multinational offering to reach more clients. Today, AIG serves nearly all S&P 500 companies.
And we see significant potential to earn a greater share of their insurance business. Growing A&H by deepening our client relationships has been a highly successful strategy. Leading to meaningful new business wins and contributing to our growth. What sets AIG apart is how we show up as 1 company with a broad range of capabilities. Our approach gives us a more complete view into each client's needs and helps us bring more innovative solutions to them. Alongside growing our existing client relationships, we are expanding our reach in strategic international markets. Our growth in Japan reflects continued strength in personal lines and expansion in commercial insurance. A market historically concentrated among a handful of well established domestic insurers.
We are building on an 80-year history in the country. Our position as the market's largest foreign property casualty insurer. As Japan's insurance market evolves, we are leveraging our exceptional agency platform and global capabilities to support a wide range of clients from individuals, to small and middle market franchises to large multinational corporations with complex needs. In Latin America, we are complementing our long standing presence in Brazil and Mexico with targeted acquisitions to support long term growth across 1 of the world's fastest developing regional insurance markets. Our most recent transactions include the acquisition of Everest Chile, which was announced last week, and expected to close in the first half of 27.
Subject to regulatory approvals and the acquisition of Everest Columbia, which we just closed. Columbia and Chile are the fourth and fifth largest corporate insurance markets in Latin America, respectively. Supported by teams with deep local knowledge, our expansion in these markets gives us a platform to accelerate growth and bring more of AIG's capabilities closer to clients and brokers in the region. Let me turn to our global casualty and property businesses. Across our casualty business worldwide, market dynamics vary by segment and geography. And we are growing the portfolio in areas with strong risk adjusted returns. For example, in North America retail casualty, our breadth of capabilities is a meaningful differentiator.
We serve clients across primary and access, multiple market segments, and a broad range of account sizes with a comprehensive offering supported by our commitment to underwriting excellence and our world class claims organization. This business which is over 3x the size of wholesale casualty, delivered double digit premium growth through targeted new business, disciplined pricing, and retention of 92%. Our high quality portfolio benefits from long term relationships that we are expanding as we continue to win new clients. In international casualty, we are pursuing attractive opportunities in markets such as Japan, and certain countries in Europe.
In contrast, competition continues to pressure pricing across The UK and much of Asia Pacific, where we are reducing our exposure until conditions improve. The diversity of our global casualty portfolio gives us the to direct capacity where we believe it can deliver the greatest value. In property, we see differences across markets. With international currently offering a more attractive environment than North America. As we noted last quarter, we are capitalizing on this favorable environment in international property to expand our portfolio. Like casualty, we benefit from having a diverse business, and we are seeing double digit organic new business growth in international property overall. As we look ahead, I remain confident in the momentum across our global business.
Through the first 9 months of the year, we grew net premiums written 11%, while maintaining strong underwriting margins. As I noted on our last call, we will not chase growth for growth's sake. Our focus is on maintaining our underwriting standards, to ensure we are appropriately managing our risk, margins, returns. With that in mind, it is important to recognize that certain pockets of the market continue to be under pressure. Therefore, we are making the choice to step back from the low to mid teens net premiums written growth expectation we shared in February.
We continue to expect an excellent year of growth for the full year of 2020, we will use the strength and diversity of our global portfolio to drive our performance. That performance is directly tied to our people. 1 of AIG's greatest strengths is the depth of talent every region and line of business. We have long been known as a talent incubator for the industry. Today, we are retaining more of that talent. Our employee retention is above 91% in 2026. And our colleagues are highly engaged. 95% report that they believe their work makes a difference for our clients. Linking our purpose and values to the impact we deliver.
We are building on this foundation by creating clearer pathways for our people to grow with several leaders taking on broader roles this year to drive our next phase of growth. Alongside these internal promotions, we made select external hires who bring differentiated expertise and new perspective. The strength of our reputation and global brand is drawing talent to us as well. Deeper in the organization, we have welcomed more than 2.1 thousand new colleagues. And our award winning early careers program drew more than 25 thousand worldwide. Giving us access to a pool of highly qualified candidates as we grow.
Going into 2027, we are streamlining our executive structure to better align our leadership with our strategy, and strengthen connections across our global organization. The leaders of our business segments, underwriting and global distribution, will report to me. These direct reporting lines will accelerate decision making, bring us closer to clients, and improve operating efficiency. Have taken the same connected approach to technology. Uniting our technology, data, digital, and AI teams into 1 organization. Bringing these capabilities together will drive further innovation, accelerate our AI initiatives, and make it easier to work within AIG.
We have an outstanding team, and the strength of our people, along with a more connected and streamlined structure, position us well to drive our business forward. Turning to AI, I want to comment on our approach to managing AI as an emerging risk and expanding its use within AIG. Our clients are building AI into the products they sell and the services people use. While embedding it into their own business operations. Our role is to help them understand, manage, and mitigate the risk related to AI, while making sure insurance evolves alongside their deployment. Are actively studying the changing landscape and working to better understand these exposures.
Including regulatory risks and those associated with large language models and other technologies. As a market leader, our goal is to provide the clarity our clients are asking for across terms, conditions, pricing and coverage. We are testing scenarios, working with external partners to enhance our modeling, and engaging in industry working groups to help shape the market's approach. In this rapidly evolving risk. Inside AIG, we remain ambitious about using AI to change how we work. Combining our expertise with trusted partnerships, across the technology and AI ecosystem. We are advancing underwriting with Claims Assist and claims with Claims Assist, applying these solutions to enhance the experience and value we deliver to our clients, our partners, and colleagues.
What we are seeing reinforces our strategy. We are deployed. Our underwriters are reviewing more submissions and generating quotes faster AI powered insights are also giving us a sharper view of broker performance and distribution trends. Enabling us to focus our underwriting on the most attractive risk adjusted returns. In claims, Claims Assist is helping our adjusters cut through the complexity and respond faster when clients need us most. Together, these capabilities demonstrate the strategic value of applying AI at the core of our business. We remain focused on extending them to strengthen how we serve clients and position AIG to move decisively as the market evolves.
As AI moves into wider everyday use, we are equally committed to using it safely and securely, and strengthening our resilience as we expand adoption. Before I turn the call over to Keith, I want to talk about the tremendous work our team has done to build on AIG's strong foundation We have an iconic brand, a rock solid balance sheet, significant financial flexibility, global capabilities, and an exceptionally talented team. Our aspiration is for AIG to be a top performing company. We are focused on achieving that in 3 ways. First, we are growing our business profitably. As I discussed earlier, we have significant opportunities for organic growth across our diverse global portfolio.
Including strengthening our product capabilities deepening our distribution relationships, and broadening our geographic presence. We are also open to inorganic opportunities that enhance our earnings potential and drive incremental ROE. Second, we are driving greater operating efficiency across AIG. We are maintaining expense discipline while improving end to end processes. We are also continuing to invest in technology and AI to improve decision making and productivity across the company. And third, we are putting our capital to work effectively. We have made progress against our capital management strategy and we are continuing to take a balanced approach. Our top priority remains deploying capital to support profitable growth where we see attractive returns.
Nonetheless, we are continuing our practice of prudently returning excess capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Together, profitable growth, greater operating efficiency and effective capital allocation support our objectives of growing AIG's earnings book value, and ROE over time. We are seeing meaningful progress in our results. Since we announced our 25 Investor Day targets, core operating ROE has improved 32 basis points and adjusted book value per share has grown 10%. We will keep building on this momentum and we see significant opportunities ahead. In closing, AIG is entering the final months of 2026 from a position of strength.
We have an enviable global platform, deep underwriting expertise, a broad set of products and risk solutions, robust claims capabilities, and a team of outstanding colleagues centered on a shared purpose. We are building on our financial strength by deploying capital selectively towards attractive growth opportunities organizing more closely around our clients, and investing in the exceptional talent and capabilities needed to serve them as a market leader and best in class global underwriting company. I will now turn the call over to Keith to review our financial results in greater detail before we take questions.
Keith Francis Walsh: Thank you, Eric, and good morning. As Eric mentioned, we delivered a strong third quarter, I am going to expand on the financial highlights. Third quarter adjusted pretax income was $1.4 billion compared to $1.6 billion in the prior-year quarter, primarily due to exceptionally light catastrophe losses in the prior year period partially offset by higher accident year underwriting income ex cat and strong net investment income growth. Accident year underwriting income ex cat grew 6% year over year to $756 million, reflecting higher earned premiums and strong margins across all 3 segments. Moving to underwriting ratios. General insurance accident year combined ratio, cat was 88.4%. A modest increase of 10 basis points year over year.
The expense ratio of 30.6% improved 30 basis points year over year driven by the GOE ratio. The GOE ratio of 12.4% improved 50 basis points year over year reflecting operating leverage and continued expense discipline. The acquisition ratio of 18.2% increased 20 basis points year over year reflecting change in business mix as we lean into growth in global personal and other businesses that carry higher acquisition costs, offer attractive overall economics. As of 9/30/2026, the trailing 12 month expense ratio was 30.7%. Based on the progress we have made to date, subject to market conditions, we expect our full year 2026 expense ratio to be approximately 30.5%.
We remain on track to reduce the general insurance expense ratio below 30% for full year 2027. The accident year loss ratio ex cat of 57.8% increased 40 basis points from the prior-year quarter. I will provide more detail as I walk through each segment. Total catastrophe charges for the quarter were $283 million, a modest figure as compared to our historical norms. This quarter's losses were largely driven by severe convective storms in North America and included $40 million of additional development related to the Middle East conflict.
Prior year development, net of reinsurance and year premiums was $91 million favorable compared to $180 million favorable in the prior-year quarter and included $85 million of net favorable loss reserve development, $26 million of ADC amortization, and $20 million of prior year return premiums. We observed favorable loss development across all 3 of our segments. North America commercial, showed favorable development in The U. S. And Canada across multiple lines of business. International commercial benefited from releases in European financial lines and global personal had favorable development in U.S. high net worth and our international accident health and personal auto books.
As a reminder, we carry out a review of entire portfolio each quarter looking at emerging claims trends as well as monthly actual versus expected movements and have a robust feedback loop between underwriting, claims and actuarial. Our reserving philosophy remains to react to bad news quickly, while allowing good news to develop over time. Overall, the general insurance calendar year combined ratio was 91.3%. Moving to segment results. North America commercial accident year combined ratio ex cat was 87.2%, an increase of 180 basis points over the prior-year quarter. The accident year loss ratio ex-cat was 63.8%, an increase of 170 basis points year over year.
This reflects changes in business mix, as we reduced certain property exposures and earned in more casualty as well as continued pricing pressure mostly driven by property. The expense ratio was 23.4% an increase of 10 basis points year over year driven by the acquisition ratio partially offset by improvement in the GOE ratio. Overall, the North America commercial calendar year combined ratio was 92.9% and included 7.1 points of catastrophe losses and 1.4 points of favorable prior year reserve development. Turning to International Commercial. The accident year combined ratio ex cat was 85.8%, an improvement of 20 basis points year over year.
The accident year loss ratio ex cat was 55.2%, an 80 basis point increase year over year reflecting rate pressure, partially mitigated by underwriting actions. The expense ratio improved 100 basis points to 30.6% driven by the GOE ratio, which improved by 90 basis points reflecting positive operating leverage. The international commercial calendar year combined ratio was 88.3% and included 3.5 points of catastrophe losses and 1 point of favorable prior year development. Moving to global personal. Third quarter underwriting income of $114 million, increased $35 million, or 44% year over year. The accident year combined ratio ex cat was 93.6% a 190 basis point improvement year over year.
The accident year loss ratio ex cat improved 240 basis points to 52.9% reflecting continued improvement in The U. S. High net worth business combined with underwriting actions and business mix change. The expense ratio increased 50 basis points to 40.7% entirely driven by the acquisition ratio. Owing to changes in business mix, while the GOE ratio improved. The global personal calendar year combined ratio was 93.2% and included 2 points of catastrophe losses and 2.4 points of favorable prior year development. We are pleased with the progress we are making. As the actions we have taken to reposition the portfolio continue to earn through. Moving to pricing. Eric covered the market dynamic across many commercial lines in detail.
So I will keep my comments at a high level. Starting with North America commercial, the pricing environment remained largely consistent with last quarter. With the most pressure on property, particularly in the E&S lines. Excluding property, North America commercial renewal pricing increased 5% year over year. In international commercial renewal pricing was down 3% compared to a 6% decline in the prior quarter. Largely reflecting the mix of renewals by quarter and individual account pricing. As Eric mentioned, market conditions vary meaningfully by line and geography.
That place the strength of our diversified and gives us the flexibility to lean into areas where we see attractive risk adjusted returns and to be more selective where pricing does not adequately reflect risk. Moving to net investment income. Third quarter total net investment income on an APTI basis was $1.1 billion up 5% year over year. General insurance net investment income was $1 billion, up 9% year over year, driven by the core fixed income portfolio as we continue to reinvest at higher yields. Since the end of 2024, which is what our Investor Day targets were based on, we have grown general insurance NII by 19% to $3.6 billion on a trailing 12 month basis.
This reflects the progress we have made and demonstrates the earnings power of the portfolio. Now let me spend a minute on what is driving that growth. First, reinvestment at higher yields remains the largest contributor. We have proactively managed the portfolio capitalizing on yield opportunities while maintaining the overall quality. Over the last 2 years, nearly 90% of our core fixed income portfolio has turned over, contributing over 2 thirds of the growth in net investment income. We have also made significant progress improving yields across our international portfolios, particularly in lower yielding markets such as Europe, and Japan.
Since the end of 2024, the yield on our international core fixed income portfolio has increased by approximately 100 basis points. Alongside the improvement in yields, we are also growing our asset base. Since the end of 2024, General Insurance invested assets have increased 7% We have also increased our allocation to core fixed income, while reducing legacy asset classes such as real estate. Together, these actions have built a more stable, and sustainable earnings base. Our focus remains on growing invested assets, optimizing yields across our global portfolio while maintaining strong credit quality and liquidity, and selectively deploying capital into private assets where risk adjusted returns are attractive.
Coming back to the third quarter, in our core fixed income portfolio, the average new money yield on our fixed maturity and loan portfolio was 5.6% roughly 125 basis points higher than sales and maturities. The annualized yield on our global core fixed income portfolio is 4.86%, a 28 basis point improvement over the prior-year quarter. Alternative investment income had an excellent quarter, generating $91 million, driven by strong private equity performance yielding 12.7%. Other investment income was also very strong at $75 million. As we look to the fourth quarter, we expect our core fixed income portfolio will continue to show growth reflecting active management in the current interest rate environment.
Alternatives should be closer to our long term expected return, and other invested assets which can be volatile quarter to quarter. Should produce modest income. Subject to market conditions. Moving to other operations. Third quarter adjusted pretax loss was $141 million versus a loss of $112 million in the prior-year quarter. The difference was driven by lower net investment income and other of $45 million compared to $72 million in the prior-year quarter owing to the absence of Corebridge Financial dividends following the complete sale of our holdings. Turning to balance sheet metrics. Adjusted book value per share, which excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses, was $81.25 at 9/30/2026, up 5% from the prior-year quarter.
Reflecting strong growth in net income offset by capital return to shareholders. Adjusted tangible book value per share was $73.37 at 9/30/2026 which also grew 5%. In September, we proactively accessed the debt markets, issuing approximately $1.3 billion equivalent of euro denominated senior notes to pre fund a 2027 debt maturity. Following this issuance, we expect our quarterly interest expense to be approximately $112 million. We ended the quarter with $10.2 billion of debt outstanding and a total debt to adjusted capital ratio of 19.6%. Through the first 9 months of the year, we returned $2.5 billion of capital to shareholders including $764 million of dividends and $1.7 billion of share repurchases.
We expect fourth quarter buybacks to be at a similar level to the third quarter, bringing full year share repurchases to approximately $2.2 billion subject to market conditions. As Eric stated, we have a strong balance sheet and significant financial flexibility. Our focus is to translate that strength to enable our strategic priorities and drive sustainable growth in earnings, book value, and ROE. We have made meaningful progress across these metrics, Since we announced our Investor Day targets, we have grown adjusted EPS more than 60% on a trailing 12 month basis.
Increased adjusted book value per share by 10% grown core operating ROE and adjusted ROE by 32 basis points and 93 basis points, respectively, and increased our quarterly dividend by 25%. These results demonstrate the progress we have made. And we have numerous levers to continue to build on that progress, including growing our premium base profitably, continuing to improve the global personal segment, driving further expense ratio improvement, growing our investment portfolio and NII, and returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. These levers give us multiple paths to drive continued improvement in our metrics, which should deliver attractive long term returns for shareholders.
Overall, our third quarter results demonstrate strong execution across underwriting, investments and capital management. With that, I will turn the call back over to Eric.
Eric Andersen: Thanks for that, Keith. Michael, we are ready for questions.
Operator: Thank you. Star 1. If your question has been answered and you would like to remove yourself in the queue, press 11 again. Our first question comes from Karen Nelson with Mizuho. Your line is open.
Analyst: Thank you. Good morning, everybody. I want to start with a question on the growth guide for premium. So, pulling that low to mid single teens premium growth guide for the full year, I think, implies at most flat premium growth in the fourth quarter, which would be a further slowdown from the third quarter. And I guess my question is, are there any 1-offs that you expect in the fourth quarter? Because otherwise, would just seem like the headwinds that you called out this quarter are far more pronounced next quarter And I am asking that not only in the context of the fourth quarter, but also to help us maybe level set into 2027.
Eric Andersen: Sure, Karen Nelson, and thanks for the question. I can help clarify it a bit. I will start with in the third quarter, we had great growth, right? I think 8% is a very solid number. And when you match it on the 11% net premium growth through the first 9 months, I think we are off to a great start. When we step back on the teens, the mid teens growth, it was really because we looked at the market from when we gave that initial assessment earlier in the year, it is continued to deteriorate in some parts.
I think as we said, we deliberately made the choice that we wanted to prioritize sustainable profitable growth over just chasing a specific percentage. But there are great growth opportunities still out there for us, as we talked about in the written remarks and the prepared remarks. Global Specialty, A&H, to name a few, And as we look at the fourth quarter, we continue to see a similar market as we saw in the third quarter. So we expect that following at the end of the year, we are going to have a great year from a top line perspective. But, John, maybe I will ask you any comments that you would bring in.
Jon Hancock: Yeah. Okay. Thanks, Eric. Yeah. Like Eric says, we got a really diverse portfolio. And we talk about this a lot. Gives us a lot of growth opportunities in different places, in different lines of business, at different stages of the cycle. We talked a lot in the prepared remarks about the general P and C business in North America and international. I will give just a few comments on some other areas. Global Specialty, a really important book and a really strong book for us. We are still seeing really good growth there, and we expect to. We have called out construction as especially in there.
And we are also seeing really good growth in Marine, both in our Global Specialty book in our Talbot at Lloyd's book. Driven in large part by the Marine War premiums, which we have been seeing and we continue to expect to see for a while. And then the other place we have touched on, global personal. We have said on previous calls, we are making great progress accelerating ANH. We have had another high single digit growth quarter in the third quarter. And we have got a very strong pipeline going into the rest of the year and into next year. Same on high net worth, We have We have been re underwriting the book.
We have got a lot of opportunity, especially in the non admitted space. So there is plenty of opportunities all over the place. We are being selective as Eric said, we are not pursuing growth for growth's sake, underwriting profitability is our North Star, but we do have these great opportunities all over the place.
Eric Andersen: Thanks, Jon. And maybe, Karen, just to hit at the 2 specific comments. 1, there is nothing specific in the fourth quarter that gives rise to any concern. And 2, we see the fourth quarter pretty similar to the third quarter. Now it is not over till it is over, but it looks like it is trending very similar to what we did in the third quarter. Got it. that is helpful. So maybe the removal of the guide is just an extra level of conservatism with growth expected to be similar in the third?
And then I guess my second question is with the premium growth becoming more weighted to international and personal, and less of the lower underlying combined ratio in North America commercial. And in addition to that, with mix shift within each of the segments, should we still expect the or should we expect mix pressure on underlying underwriting margins in 2027? So maybe I will kick that off. And then maybe, Keith, I will ask you to say a couple of words, too. But listen, I think we are fortunate to have enough to have a large and diverse global insurance portfolio. Right?
And I think when you look at the general insurance business through 9 months, the 87.8% AYCR is a 50 basis point improvement. Obviously, global commercial holding up really well at 86.3 over 9 months, but we are being pretty selective on risk. We are trying to hold pricing, terms and conditions, pulling back in markets where we do not see adequate risk adjusted returns, and we are proactively managing the mix. So that is very important to us as we think about the changing market and the global opportunities as we look to deploy capital across all of our businesses. But Keith, why do not you talk for a minute about that?
Keith Francis Walsh: Yeah. Thanks, Eric. I would just add, we manage the portfolio on a global basis, but really the focus on the overall combined ratio. And what we have been doing is really disciplined underwriting actions in portfolio management across all lines, and we have seen significant improvement in several businesses, specifically in the Global Personal book, In addition to that, our expense ratio continues to get better. And as Eric said, with these actions we are largely holding our margins overall, which are very, very strong. But this is not a new story. Right? Some of the things we have talked about, you know, commercial lines, loss ratios are slightly ticking up.
We are getting improvement in personal, and the expense ratio continues to improve. And that is how we are holding the margins. that is really the playbook. North America specifically, in the quarter, you see the 170 basis points uptick. I would just kind of zoom back and point to the 90 basis points through the 9 months. And a couple of other points I would give you. Third quarter, last year was our lowest loss ratio within North America. Right? So the comparison was somewhat difficult, and there was a few items that benefited that number roughly around the 50 basis point mark, and so it created a bit of a headwind there.
I would say when we look ahead to the fourth quarter, it should be largely similar, the loss ratio in North America to the third. And then in addition to that, what are the drivers of what is driving the increase overall? it is really mix is the biggest primarily as we have continued to talk about. As we earn in more casualty business, which is highly profitable, We feel really good about it. It just has a higher loss ratio than as we decline net in that part of the market. And then additionally, obviously, the rate impact on North America property as rate declines earn through, it is really a combination of those things.
But really, we are very, very pleased with overall margins, and they continue to be very strong. Thank you.
Operator: Our next question comes from Michael Zaremski with BMO.
Michael Zaremski: Oh, great. Thanks. it is Michael Zaremski from BMO. Regarding top line growth, your Chairman, Peter Zaffino, places a lot of emphasis on buying more reinsurance to hedge against volatility. Kind of curious if, buying different levels or less reinsurance is a potential tool to increase top and bottom line growth in 27.
Eric Andersen: Sure. Thanks, Michael. it is a great question. And the reinsurance program us, we have always viewed as a very strategic and critical part of our growth strategy. And we have been spending a lot of time on that question since coming out of Monte Carlo a couple of months ago and then a bunch of other meetings that have been happening working with our partners, both traditional and alternative, thinking through what our strategy is. I would say, listen. We like the program where it is. We are gonna look at tweaks, obviously, to take advantage of either market pricing or areas where we think we can retain more risk.
But ultimately, how we view reinsurance as a major supporter of how we look to grow and deploy capital has not fundamentally changed. Understood.
Michael Zaremski: And then my follow-up is, on the lost cost environment. Eric, you gave some color in your prepared remarks as well. AIG's reserves have clearly been very stable. But kind of curious if you are seeing any slight changes in the loss-cost environment in the recent quarter or trend lines changing?
Eric Andersen: We really have not. I think especially in U. S. Casualty, the loss trends, they are not abating. You know, social inflation, litigation finance, other factors, still very present, and they are driving the need for rate increases. And we continue to be able to get those rate increases, which ultimately tells us that the general market has a similar perspective on it as we do and the clients do as well as they are supporting that. And so, you know, I wish I could give you a different answer, but I think the answer this quarter is similar to last quarter, is we are not seeing enough of a break to be able to pull back on pricing.
Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Alex Scott with Barclays.
Alex Scott: Hi. Good morning. First, First 1 I have for you is just on the ROE progression. I know you have talked in the past about, you know, improving the ROE, and I think some of that was gonna come from the growth. And so I totally understand why, you would not wanna commit to growth levels in this kind of environment. But are there still commitments on ROE that you will make and just the progress that you will make towards re levering the business even if it has to come from other means of relevering other than just growth?
Eric Andersen: Yeah. Sure. that is a great question and listen. I think we had exceptional performance and profitability in the third quarter and through the first 9 months, and our ROE sitting at a strong core operating ROE at 11.4%, and we are looking to build on that momentum. I would and I think you are kind of alluding to it in your question, the ROE is a long term journey for us. Not a quantum leap, and it is about how do we execute on our strategic priorities, how do we compound progress over time, Maybe, Keith, why do not you walk through the 3 or 4 levers, and then maybe I will come back with a couple of comments.
Keith Francis Walsh: Yeah. Thanks. Look, the levers we have talked about to grow the ROE, ROE is a clear focus for us. Right? We want. We talked about the 10% to 13% range at Investor Day. We are in that range. We want to improve in that range and continue to do so well beyond the 3 year guidance. Really, what it is, there is a couple of levers here. We want to grow our premium base profitably. Right? We have a diversified global prop. Platform, strong capabilities. Eric's walk through that. We see attractive organic growth opportunities across the portfolio.
The second continue to improve our underwriting, and you clearly see that in the global Personal segment specifically, and we have been growing our Accident year underwriting earnings pretty strong over the last couple of years ex cat. Further expense ratio improvement is a lever Right? Once we get to the sub 30, that is not the end of the journey. Right? that is continuing through that journey over time as we wanna continue to bring that ratio down over time to a best in class number. Investment income is a tailwind. that is a really good story for us now. You clearly see that in the results and we think that will continue to improve.
And then, of course, capital management. Right? Us managing the denominator of that equation and really returning capital effectively and smartly and prudently is top of mind for us.
Eric Andersen: And I do think, Keith, just since Investor Day, we have been making significant progress. You heard a little bit about it in your script, but how we have grown adjusted EPS by more than 60% book value by 10%, core operating ROE by 32 basis points. We are making progress on these goals, And like I said, it is a journey, not a quantum leap. And we are gonna continue to manage the business as a effectively as we can in whatever market cycle is in front of us to make sure that we are growing book value and we are growing our earnings over time.
Alex Scott: Got it. that is all helpful. And then you know, I guess related to the whole conversation is just, you know, I think you expressed inorganic you know, interest as well, and so I would just be interested in the kind of things you would look at and whether you know, is there a larger amount of capacity for you to go after? Something, or are we talking more bolt ons?
Eric Andersen: Listen. I would say right now, the top priority is to grow the company profitably by just expanding our premium base doing our blocking and tackling every day, interacting with our clients, and really providing the right solutions with our existing team. That said, whether it was the acquisition of the Colombian business from Everest and the Chilean business we just announced are good examples of how we are leveraging our geographic footprint, how we are making incremental steps to expand our portfolio. But ultimately, we have got some pretty high hurdles. On what we would do to do something inorganically. But we want to remain nimble.
And so I would say, we want to have all the options on the table from an ability to grow our existing business whether it is to expand the footprint, whether it is to be able to do some bolt ons like we have done. But the focus overwhelmingly is to drive our existing business with our team doing our thing every day. Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Meyer Shields with KBW. Your line is open.
Meyer Shields: Thanks. I was going to follow-up on the M&A question. Obviously, you earned a lot more than the buyback in the third quarter. Should we connect those? In other words, is there a reason to harbor some excess cash in anticipation of inorganic growth?
Eric Andersen: that is a great question, Meyer, and I will give you an easy answer. No. We continue to. As I said before, we continue to drive our business forward. I love our strategy on what we are doing with getting closer to clients on our product expertise, our claims capabilities. We feel like we have got a lot of opportunity in front of us with our existing portfolio globally. And that is our focus.
Meyer Shields: Okay. that is very clear. Second question on the investment portfolio. I get that there is still higher reinvestment rates. Is the step up associated with active management, is that done?
Keith Francis Walsh: For the most part, Meyer, a lot of that has been done. We have turned over, like, 90% of the portfolio over the 2 years as you have seen. We do have some fairly significant runoff that naturally occurs. And as we reinvest at higher yields there, you will continue to see a drift up For example, our new money rates are roughly 5.6%, and you can see our overall yield is about 4.86. So we are getting some nice lift that will continue as we go forward.
Meyer Shields: Alright. Perfect. Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Brian Meredith with UBS. Your line is open.
Brian Meredith: Yes. Thanks. First 1, Keith, I think it is more for you. If I think about the 30% and below expense target for 2027, how much of that is relying on just improving operating leverage versus just driving cost saves. And if we are looking at, you know, 1% or 2% premium growth next year, is it gonna be really difficult for you to make that?
Keith Francis Walsh: Thanks, Brian Meredith. So a couple things. The we have not given a premium growth guide, first off, so that is your that is your assumption right there. But 1 thing I would note is with the premium that earns in from the very strong written this year, we should have a nice lift in earned premium next year. So clearly, the operating leverage is a big factor. Within that as we talk through. So, you know, that is correct. The most of the most of the gains will really come from the GOE ratio. As Eric mentioned, the mix of business changes, we have a little bit of pressure on the acquisition side that we outlined a bit.
So, really, it will be focused on the GOE ratio, which is our core expenses, things we can control, and we feel really good about getting to the below 30 for next year.
Eric Andersen: Thanks. And maybe, Keith, just to add a few things, just to reiterate on that. I think we laid out a target in Investor Day and we are focused on achieving that target It has some mix issues, as Keith is talking about. Certainly, the GOE number, which is expenses that are really within our day to day control, We are focused on it through operational efficiency, expense management, process improvement, all that, including the operating leverage. And then, obviously, on the acquisition cost piece, growing in businesses that draw a higher acquisition cost but have great overall loss fundamentals is important to us, and we are gonna do that.
And so balancing that growth in high net worth and warranty and A&H and things that draw higher acquisition cost measuring that against our own expenses is something we are working hard on to make sure we get to the overall target. And then ultimately, I think, as Keith said, it is a along the way. We wanna be 1 of the top quartile overall expense ratio performers. But we also wanna draw the right business into the organization that give us a great balance and mix. And so we are working on both those levers at the same time.
Brian Meredith: Makes sense. And Eric, I guess, a little bit here. AIG, obviously, a huge player in the E&S market. We are hearing a lot more about the competitive pressure in that marketplace on top of just business moving from E&S to the admitted markets. Is that true when it comes to your book and your portfolio? And how much of a headwind do you think that has been to growth this year? And do you anticipate that could be a continued headwind as we look into next year?
Eric Andersen: We actually have not seen a migration at any significant way back from E&S into the admitted market. And obviously, as a player that does both, we are watching it pretty carefully We have seen submissions increase. Demand continues to increase. there is obviously some competition that is more significant in the E&S space, and we have talked a lot about property. And I mentioned in the prepared remarks a little bit about casualty, too, starting to see. Some of that is who is competing in the marketplace. You know, you end up seeing in the E&S space a lot more MGAs sidecars, nontraditional players.
And so we are a little bit worried that the alignment of insurer and MGA paper or MGA and insurer paper are not as aligned and managed as tightly as it should be. But we see it, and we are reacting to it as best we can. I actually attended a conference we threw a couple days ago with our largest wholesale partners to just talk through that issue and opportunity to make sure that we are seeing the business that we want and being clear about our disciplined approach and where we see it.
I do think the property topic tends to overwhelm the conversation with people are talking about E and S, but we are seeing growth in some key areas. Whether it is industry specific like life sciences or real estate or financial institutions or other specific areas. So it is a question of there is a tsunami wave of property that everybody's been talking about, but the fundamentals underneath it when you get to the other areas, are actually pretty solid, and we continue to be pretty optimistic about the attractiveness of that segment.
Operator: Our next question comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Elyse Greenspan: Hi, thanks. My first question is on the property side, right? Obviously, low losses this year. And, you we are obviously hearing about continued price declines, right, when we go into the 1 reinsurance renewals. So is your expectation, right, that we probably like, when do you expect we could get to a floor in terms of property pricing? Or is it just very much dependent upon just seeing losses at some point? Or when can you see us hitting a bottom there?
Eric Andersen: Wow. I wish I had a I wish I had a crystal ball to give you a good answer on that. Listen, you are seeing it play all the way through from retail property, E&S into reinsurance property, and it has been really just the balance, as you know, Elyse, of the lack of significant losses and excess capital and new capital that is trying to get into the market. As we approach it, though, we are seeing pricing pressure across North America as we talked about and a little bit in international is currently a little bit better than North America.
And we do see opportunities for growth in international But the key in this will be how do you-- how do you maintain the discipline underwriting and the rate adequacy and the terms and conditions and the attachments and the limit management, all the things that you know we have been working on over the last 5 years really comes home as a critical function when you are at a market like this. But, John, maybe a little bit of color on it if you would as well.
Jon Hancock: Yeah. Yeah. Sure. Yeah. I mean, I think it is it is true North America. it is definitely true that North America property pricing generally is under pressure still. What I would say is in retail property, our pricing in the third quarter was broadly the same as the year-to-date. So we have been a bit of stabilization there. And the point you make, Alicia, what drives it, If we saw a lot more loss activity, we might see those markets start to moderate. But we are not acting like an index for the market anyway. I think we have been pretty clear on that. We will keep making the right underwriting decisions.
I would say as well, as Eric says wholesale and retail property they behave in similar but different. Talked a lot about it already. What I would say is again, we have started to see our rates in Lex property start to moderate. We think that is probably a result of our own actions around the general market trend.
And then just finally, to close it off with the point on international property, we rightly talk a lot about North America property because that is where we see the biggest swings But we are seeing good growth opportunities, as Eric says, because we are seeing more favorable conditions across places such as The UK, certainly European countries, in Latin America, in Japan as well. So we will keep coming back and out of the less favorable places.
Eric Andersen: We have got lots of opportunity there as well, and I think we will continue to see And maybe just to play it all the way through to the reinsurance side, Elyse, I do think we are gonna see as a buyer of reinsurance, think we are going to see opportunities to either save money and I think it will give us some real tactical choices to make I think strategically, as you look at our portfolio, it was built to manage our volatility. We were able to capture some savings in 2026 without having to make any real fundamental changes in terms of the risk profile. And I think that opportunity might be in front of us again.
As we work through the marketplace and the oneone renewals with our partners. So think we are going get a good balance between some of the front end pressure and some of the ability to save money on some of the reinsurance support.
Elyse Greenspan: Thanks. And then my second question. Right? So it goes back to capital. Right? So, you know, AIG, right, is lower premium to surplus levels relative to peers and obviously, you guys could choose to grow into that lower surplus level, but it does sound like from putting all the commentary together, growth is tougher So over time, if the, you know, environment remains competitive, could you guys potentially look to take more dividends out of your subs than like the $3 billion that you guys outlined at Investor Day? And perhaps, you know, that could help fuel a little bit of incremental buyback relative to what you guys have outlined to the street.
Eric Andersen: Sure, Elyse. And look, I would say a moment like this, we are actually pretty fortunate to have the rock solid balance sheet that we have. and a balanced and consistent capital management is our focus, but we do want to grow with profitable growth into the balance sheet as best as we can. And we see opportunities as we have been talking about But ultimately, how we return capital back through dividends and buybacks is something that we have been committed to.
And I think the catch word for us is we want to be nimble in this because we do think as the market gets under pressure, there will be opportunities for us to either grow into certain areas or take advantage of some situations But, ultimately, you know, looking at where we are trading slightly above tangible book, you know, buybacks is obviously a pretty strong use of capital for us as we sit here today. Thank you.
Operator: I think we have time for 1 more. Thank you. Our next question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Analyst: So, you have to make it good because we are after the so you gotta make it a good question. I am a lucky boy. What can I say? You know, John used the term index the market in saying AIG is not, and that is certainly not the case But I want to understand the extent to which broker led syndications are a part of AIG's book and what you think the future of that is for large case insurance as a source of business and what that means for AIG.
Eric Andersen: that is a great question. I am glad we took it. Look, I think broker facilities and panels will continue to expand across the market as they have been growing over the last couple of years. And I think they are changing. Right? They have gone from filling gaps in capacity to some of the preferred mechanisms, especially in markets like Lloyd's and others where it is a sort of quota share type marketplace and look. I think they can create competitive challenges, but they can also provide opportunities to attract specialty businesses or diverse portfolios or certain geographies where you wanna grow more.
But I will tell you, our. it is not a big deal for us in terms of participation. Because our approach has been and will be to remain selective. And disciplined, especially in this part of the market cycle. And so underwriting quality, profitability, diversification, strategic fit, all that is important. And I think of all of that, underwriting discipline is probably the most important. And so we are gonna continue to evaluate them as they as they come to market. They are not all created equal, and they all have different aspects and things they are trying to get done.
We have done 1 or 2 where we thought we could get access to a portfolio where we might be underweight. But generally speaking, it has to have a diverse book in order to make it work. And so we have got the skill set to evaluate them, which we do, and we will be pretty selective on where we dip in. Is it a de minimis amount of the premium at this point? I do not know your definition of de minimis. I would just say it is not a big deal. Okay. I will take that. Thank you. All right. Listen, I think. I just wanna say thank you all for joining us this morning.
It was another great quarter. And I am really grateful for the AIG team to make it happen. And look forward to being with you again next quarter. Thank you.
Operator: Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Good day.
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