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Newmont Stock Is Up 8.7% Has The Earnings Beat Changed The Bull Case

Simply Wall St · 6d ago
  • Newmont Corporation reported third quarter 2026 sales of US$6,363 million and net income of US$2,475 million, alongside updated gold production figures and guidance, a continued dividend, and a recent presentation at IMARC 2026 in Sydney.
  • The combination of higher third quarter earnings per share, a detailed production outlook for the rest of 2026, and an affirmed cash dividend gives investors a clearer view of Newmont's current profitability, operating scale, and capital return priorities.
  • We will now look at how Newmont's stronger third quarter earnings profile could influence the broader investment narrative around the miner.
Spot opportunities across the gold sector by comparing Newmont's latest quarter with a hand picked group of 34 elite gold producer stocks that are positioned around similar production and earnings stories.

Newmont Investment Narrative Recap

To own Newmont, you generally need to believe this gold producer can keep translating a large asset base into resilient cash generation while managing mine grades, costs, and safety. The latest quarter points to solid earnings and higher sales, although attributable gold output for the period was lower than a year earlier, which keeps production discipline and grade management in focus.

The key short term swing factor is execution against the fourth quarter and full year 2026 production guidance while cost inflation and capital spending remain active pressure points. Lower grade phases at assets like Cadia, Peñasquito, and Lihir, plus rising sustaining and development capex, still look like the biggest operational risk to test that earnings profile.

The clearest announcement to watch against those catalysts is Newmont's fourth quarter and 2026 full year production guidance, which calls for 1,365 Koz of attributable gold in the final quarter and 5,260 Koz for the year. Those figures give you a concrete benchmark to judge whether mine plans, integration work, and ongoing optimization are translating into consistent output.

If Newmont tracks close to that production path while holding its cost and safety record in line with investor expectations, the recent earnings strength and the continued US$0.26 dividend per share can support the narrative of a large scale gold producer with stable cash generation. Any material gap against guidance, or prolonged production pressure at key sites, would quickly dominate the discussion around risk and valuation.

Newmont's current earnings of $8.6b are set against analyst expectations for $12.6b of profit and $31.3b of revenue in 2029, based on a projected 6.7% yearly increase in revenue. That implies an earnings uplift of about $4.0b by 2029 if the consensus view plays out.

Uncover why Newmont's fair value indicates a 28% potential upside to its current price, which could narrow quickly as sentiment catches up.

NYSE:NEM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
NYSE:NEM 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Exploring Other Perspectives

One bullish twist on Newmont focuses on capital returns rather than production guidance. Before this latest quarter and the IMARC 2026 update, the most optimistic analysts were sketching out revenue of about US$40.2b and earnings of US$14.8b by 2029. That is far above the consensus view, and it shows how differently you can read the same business. You might see this new information and decide those upbeat assumptions look more realistic, or you may feel they now look stretched. The key is to compare these pre news forecasts with your own expectations and stay open to the idea that both the bullish and baseline narratives could shift as fresh data lands.

Explore 8 other Newmont fair value estimates, including one that suggests as much as 54% upside from the current price.

Decide For Yourself

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Newmont?

Once you have formed a view on Newmont, it can help to set that thesis against a wider field of companies with different risk and return profiles. The Simply Wall St Screener lets you scan the market through a few focused lenses so you can see which businesses line up with your own priorities on value, balance sheet strength, and income potential.

  • If you want potential mispricing at the value end of the market, start by comparing your watchlist with a curated 35 high quality undervalued stocks that already clear basic quality and balance sheet tests.
  • For readers who care most about resilience through the cycle, filter for companies that pair steady fundamentals with robust finances using a list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (23 results) as a benchmark for what strong looks like.
  • If income is your main focus, line up Newmont against a group of 4 dividend fortresses that offer higher yields and see how their payout records and balance sheets compare.