Rystad: Democratic Sweep in US Could Pave Way for Iran Deal, Oil Supply Normalization

MT Newswires · 6d ago
11:15 AM EST, 11/04/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The sweeping Democratic Party win in the US midterm elections increases political pressure on President Donald Trump to potentially seek a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Rystad Energy said in a Wednesday note. Although Trump retains authority over military strikes, naval blockades and sanctions licenses, Democratic control of both chambers of Congress could make military escalation much more costly politically, according to the research firm. "With both chambers now capable of passing resolutions, holding back war funding and delaying confirmations, the administration faces a shorter political runway and greater institutional pressure to find a Hormuz deal. That is relevant for oil markets because a restoration of flows through the strait is what is ultimately needed for crude supply and product inventories to normalize," said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad.