Centrus Energy Is Down 65% Even Though Sales Rose

Centrus Energy has secured a fixed price, US$900 million Department of Energy contract to expand HALEU production to commercial scale by 2029, and the market reaction over 2026 has been brutal. Holding Centrus Energy from the start of the year would have meant a 64.9% loss, including dividends. If you had made that call on 1 January, how do you square this drop with the bullish and bearish cases that were already on record, and which expectation deserves a fresh look now?

Centrus Energy has already moved. Pinpoint other ways to investigate the theme among 16 nuclear energy infrastructure stocks.

The Two Centrus Energy Stories Investors Had To Weigh

The shares cost US$243 at the start of the period, and anyone looking at Centrus Energy then had to decide which story deserved more weight.

The bullish narrative treated a Fair Value of US$304, a price implied by its own optimistic assumptions, as reasonable and leaned on Centrus being the only proven American HALEU enricher as Russian supply retreated.

The bearish view saw Fair Value at US$106 and focused on dependence on a handful of long-term government and utility contracts as a core source of revenue uncertainty.

What The Results Changed For The Centrus Energy Thesis

The US$900 million Department of Energy HALEU contract and a Q2 2026 backlog of US$4.5 billion, with commitments running to 2040, clearly spoke to the bullish Centrus Energy story about demand and contract depth. At the same time, profit dropped from US$28.9 million in Q2 2025 to US$16.8 million in Q2 2026 and net margin fell from 18.7% to 9.5%, which supported the cautious view on earnings resilience. Overall, the evidence cut both ways.

The key assumption investors can apply to other stocks is that contract wins and guidance are only half the picture. It is also important to track whether net margin and absolute profit move in the same direction as backlog and revenue, line by line in each quarterly report.

What Centrus Energy's Price Slide Leaves You Paying For Today

Centrus Energy now trades at US$95.67 after a 64.9% fall from the start of the year, while the selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits above the current price based on its own assumptions about the business.

The Narrative focuses on Centrus as a pure play on U.S. HALEU supply. A buyer today would need to believe advanced reactor deployment and domestic HALEU demand build fast enough for commercial-scale enrichment to stay valuable once the current contract period matures.

"The HALEU shortage creates a unique dynamic within the nuclear industry. Companies positioned within the fuel supply chain could benefit from increased strategic importance, while reactor developers may face additional deployment risks if fuel availability becomes a limiting factor."

One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its higher Fair Value, assumptions and all

Find Your Own Contrarian Opportunity

This company's disappointment is already part of the story. Your next idea could come from looking where the price and the possibilities still seem far apart. Here are three companies priced below our estimates.

• Company 1 - 48% below our estimate - monetises a dense store network and app ordering to offset weaker drink demand.
• Company 2 - 45% below our estimate - converts an elevated project backlog into cash while managing remaining legacy legal issues.
• Company 3 - 28% below our estimate - sells custom chips and infrastructure software that address rising data handling and security needs.

That is three of the list. See all 35 potentially undervalued companies →

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