AerCap Holdings (AER) Could Be 13% Below Fair Value After Q3 Results And New Leases

AerCap Holdings (AER) has been in focus after Q3 2026 results, as rising earnings estimates and a strong Zacks Rank have converged with fresh aircraft leasing deals and progress in its freighter program.

The Q3 release and new freighter leases have arrived alongside a pick up in market interest, with AerCap Holdings’ share price gaining 12.52% over the past 30 days and year to date share price return at 12.29%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 25.34% and very large 3 year total shareholder return of 158.09% point to momentum that investors are watching closely.

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Bulls point to AerCap Holdings’ recent price jump and higher earnings estimates. Bears focus on softer net income and revenue growth. Which story does the current valuation credit more heavily?

Most Popular Narrative: 13% Undervalued

AerCap Holdings last closed at $162.41, while the most followed narrative anchors fair value at $186.60. The debate centers on whether current cash generation and capital returns justify that gap.

Scale driven deal flow, such as AerCap Holdings record asset sale program with first half 2026 gain on sale margins of 20% to 24% and guidance for US$4b to US$5b of sales in 2026, can keep crystallizing book value into cash at attractive multiples and support both net margins and earnings.

See why 21 investors see AerCap Holdings as 13% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $186.60 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, if jet fuel costs stay high or aircraft sale gains soften, AerCap Holdings could see pressure on margins and on the valuation case supporting that 13% discount.

Find out about the key risks to this AerCap Holdings narrative.

Next Steps

Mixed signals on AerCap Holdings so far. Act while the data is fresh and compare the bullish and bearish angles with the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more AerCap Holdings sized ideas?

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