SJF Bank sees 50% chance of ECB rate hike in December

• SJF Bank's November 4, 2026, analysis puts the probability of a December ECB rate increase at 50%, versus markets' roughly 90%.
• Euro-area inflation rose to 4% in October from 3.8%, a three-year high and double the ECB's target.
• Energy drove almost all the increase; core inflation held at 2.5%, showing no evidence of broader price pressures.
• Further energy price increases remain a risk, while tighter credit conditions and higher bond yields are restraining demand.
• A December increase would likely be the cycle's last, chief economist Jes Asmussen forecasts, citing limited economic resilience.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. SJF Bank A/S published the original content used to generate this news brief on November 04, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.