CINNO Research: The global LCD TV panel market may maintain a weak balance between supply and demand in November. Panel prices are expected to remain stable

Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhou Hua, chief analyst at CINNO Research, said that in November, the global LCD TV panel market may maintain a weak balance between supply and demand. On the demand side, domestic market growth may be difficult to be clearly released. Overseas Black Five promotions are expected to drive brands to make up orders on a rolling basis; supply-side, leading manufacturers may continue their on-demand production schedule strategies, and the pace of supply contraction is expected to flatten, and the rigidity of upstream material costs compresses manufacturers' profit targets throughout the year, or provides some support for panel price stability. It is expected that LCD TV panel prices will remain stable overall.

In November of this year, the global price trend of LCD TV panels of all sizes may have stabilized at the same time. Demand side: Market differentiation is obvious. Retail sales volume in the domestic TV market declined simultaneously in the third quarter. It is expected that channel inventory will be at medium to high levels, brand stocking strategies may shift to conservatism, and short-term demand may be difficult to maintain a high level; overseas North American markets rely on the Black 5 peak season to provide supplementary order support, partly hedging domestic demand pressure. Supply side: High-generation production line operations fell back to 80% in October. Operation in November is expected to fluctuate slightly around this level. Coupled with the rigidity of the cost of travel materials and the manufacturer's business philosophy of prioritizing profit protection in the fourth quarter, there is a strong desire to control production. Under the combined effects of supply and demand, panel prices are expected to remain stable in November.

From the demand side, TV demand in the fourth quarter of this year may show a fragmented pattern of weak domestic and overseas structural support. TV retail sales in the domestic market both fell in the third quarter, and demand for real estate continued to be pressured in the post-cycle period. The trade-in effect of home appliances weakened marginally, and the market market may be difficult to be driven by strong increments in the fourth quarter; brand channel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the pace of preparation is likely to remain cautious, mainly placing orders on a rolling basis as needed, or large-scale pre-order collection is difficult.

In terms of overseas markets, demand in the North American market is expected to remain relatively steady. Combined with the fourth quarter Black 5 promotion window, brands will roll up orders, which is expected to hedge against domestic demand pressure to a certain extent. Looking at the size structure, demand in the 32” small-size TV market is expected to continue to weaken, and manufacturers may simultaneously shrink production schedules to hedge price reduction pressure brought about by declining demand; demand for large screens of 55” and above is relatively resilient, and the penetration rate of high-end specifications such as Mini LED is expected to continue to rise. There is upward elasticity, but it is constrained by the weak domestic terminal market, or it may be difficult to push prices upward. The overall price of LCD TV panels is expected to stabilize in November.

From a supply-side perspective, according to CINNO Research statistics, the operating rate of global LCD TV high-generation production lines fell back to about 80% in October. Head panel manufacturers continued to implement on-demand production strategies, relying on production line maintenance and production schedule adjustments to control the pace of shipment. The operating rate of the industry's high-generation line is expected to fluctuate slightly around 80% in November. It is likely that production schedules will not be further drastically lowered, and the pace of supply contraction is expected to slow marginally. The rigid rise in the cost of materials such as upstream glass substrates, TV DDIC, and polarizers is expected to form a bottom support for panel prices; compounding the profit differentiation of manufacturers in the first three quarters, in order to meet the annual performance assessment goals, manufacturers may prioritize profit guarantee and actively avoid low price orders, and tend to avoid exchanging losses in exchange for shipment volume. Under the joint constraints of production control pace, cost bottom line, and profit claims from manufacturers, it may provide supply-side support for panel price stabilization in November.

According to the latest statistics from CINNO Research, global LCD TV panel prices are expected to stabilize in November 2026. Prices for all sizes are expected to remain the same as in October: 32” to 98” /100” mainstream panel prices are estimated at 32 US dollars, 61 US dollars, 85 US dollars, 110 US dollars, 163 US dollars, 217 US dollars, 285 US dollars, and 405 US dollars, respectively. Despite the divergence in demand for different sizes, supply-side scheduling adjustments hedge the differences between supply and demand between specifications, and ultimately drive market prices to flatten. Short-term panel prices may continue to fluctuate in the range.