BTC gold bottoming and AI plummeting: the contrarian profiteering logic of two unpopular assets

According to Woofun AI, when market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, it is a critical moment to test whether investors can truly trade against the trend. Charlie Bilello pointed out that Bitcoin and gold are the two worst performing mainstream assets so far in 2026. This double kill situation was unprecedented in previous years (as of the end of October, gold fell about 11% during the year, Bitcoin fell about 12%, while the Nasdaq 100 index still rose more than 11% during the same period).

However, this apparent downturn conceals deep macroeconomic imbalances: annual interest expenses on US Treasury bonds have exceeded $1 trillion, and the cumulative inflation rate since 2020 has exceeded 30%, continuing to erode the dollar's purchasing power. The mainstream narrative ignores hard assets due to the popularity of individual AI stocks, but data shows that the trillions of dollars that the government is about to issue will drive hard asset prices to rise sharply in the medium to long term, which lays a solid foundation for expected returns over the next 24 months. Investors can easily miss out on this structural opportunity driven by monetary expansion if they only judge on short-term sentiment.

An in-depth analysis of the contrarian logic of hard assets will reveal serious cognitive biases in mainstream market views. Despite the recent decline in the performance of Bitcoin and gold, which are viewed as unattractive non-interest-bearing assets, the objective trend of macro data does not support this bearish conclusion. The scale of banknote printing by the US government has reached a record high, which means that the fiat currency system is being diluted far faster than the adjustment of asset prices.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that in the face of trillions of dollars of potential money supply, current hard asset valuations have been seriously undervalued. According to the mainstream market narrative, since AI companies' revenue and profits have repeatedly reached new highs, allocating assets such as Bitcoin and gold is superfluous. But this view ignores fundamental changes in the monetary environment. Investors cannot counter objective data. The data clearly tells us that the government will also issue trillions of dollars, which will directly lead to a further decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar, thereby driving up the price of hard assets denominated in US dollars. Therefore, at a time when everyone is ignoring these sound monetary assets, it is the best time to lay out the layout. This contrarian option is likely to bring good returns over the next 24 months, because in the medium to long term, the supporting effect of currency overruns on asset prices will far exceed the suppression of short-term market sentiment.

At the same time, AI mainline has also seen similar misjudgments and valuation restructuring opportunities. Individual AI-related stocks plummeted on Friday. Market concerns about huge investment in AI continued to suppress the valuation of listed companies, and unlisted unicorn companies were also under pressure. For reference, the Nasdaq 100 index fell 3.5%; Bitcoin dropped even more, falling to an intraday low of around $76,300. Intel (INTC.US) and Reddit (RDDT.US) stock prices fell cliff-style, plummeting 28% and 29% respectively. Some investors have lowered Anthropic's IPO valuation ceiling from around $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion, and OpenAI has also reduced its fundraising target from $30 billion to $20 billion. In a boom cycle driven by technology (AI) that can change the world, headlines like this are confusing.

The market is worried that if this technology is to be implemented and popularized around the world, the investment costs are too huge. People are constantly questioning: can the investment of trillions of dollars eventually be exchanged for a sufficiently high return on investment? But the questions themselves are misleading. The founders of the world's leading companies didn't look at AI investment from this perspective; their thinking dimensions were completely opposite. What these industry leaders are really asking is: if we lose the AI competition, what will we lose? Once you lose the AI competition on your track or vertical, you probably won't be able to catch up with it in the future. This technology is extremely disruptive. Therefore, the focus of the analysis should not be “what is the return on investment”, but should be: How much capital are we willing to spend to ensure that the company is not completely eliminated? In my opinion, the answer for most companies would be: do whatever it takes.

If my assumptions and analysis hold true, the current mainstream market narrative around AI investment is completely wrong. The pessimism in the market in recent weeks was a misjudgment. Investors who dare to lay out in the midst of a decline will reap huge profits in 2027. Some people may think that the AI market is over, but almost no one will clear their holdings and hold cash, because the pain of running short is far more difficult than losing money on the books.

After understanding this delicate market mentality, the question becomes: What assets should be allocated to the main line of AI? My opinion is that the barbell strategy works best for most portfolios. At one end, lay out computing power assets as much as possible; it is difficult for the global computing power supply to keep up with demand. This is a round of supply and demand gaps across the ages, which will drive up the price of computing power in the long run. On the other side, the application of AI and physical robot AI will be one of the biggest winners in the next ten years. I'm least optimistic about GM Big Model Labs; they're sandwiched between them; they have neither mastered a sizable computing power business; apart from monthly subscription fees, they haven't firmly grasped C-side user relationships. This is not to say that big model makers will perform very poorly; it's just that there are opportunities for higher odds and stronger income asymmetry in computing power and AI applications. So no matter what perspective you look at it from, the two main lines I've been most optimistic about for a long time — AI and Bitcoin — are now at a stage where they are not being viewed by the market.

At this time, only people who can block noise and maintain a high-quality asset layout have the chance to accumulate huge wealth. Exactly what assets to buy is a very different choice from person to person. Finally, let me give you a clear conclusion: polish your eyes, block the noise, and let go of the layout. Data is the only truth worth believing; the mainstream market narrative is wrong. Over the next 24 months, the market will verify this.