Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices Are Heavily Oversold – a Rebound for Grains Could Be Coming

Corn, soybean, soybean meal, and winter wheat futures markets are all trapped in price downtrends on their daily bar charts, amid firmly bearish technical postures. 

December corn (ZCZ26) futures on Friday fell 3 1/2 cents to $4.47 3/4, closed at a four-month low close. and for the week were down 8 1/4 cents.January soybean (ZSF27) futures fell 1/2 cent to $12.34 1/4 and for the week were down 34 1/4 cents. December soybean meal (ZMZ26) futures on Friday fell $4.70 to $324.60, hit a two-month low, and for the week were down $21.50. December soft red winter (SRW) wheat (ZWZ26) futures on Friday fell 1/4 cent to $6.03 1/2 and for the week lost 21 1/2 cents. December hard red winter (HRW) wheat (KEZ26) futures lost a penny to $6.44 1/4 and for the week were down 20 1/4 cents. December corn, January soybeans, and December meal futures on Friday all posted technically bearish weekly and monthly low closes. And every Friday in October saw a bearish weekly low close in December corn. 

A significant amount of the selling pressure in corn, soybeans, and meal futures is coming from harvest-related commercial hedging pressure as farmers sell their crops right off the combines. A big selloff in the U.S. stock market late last week added a “risk-off” injury to the beleaguered grain futures market bulls. If the stock indexes continue to deteriorate this week, grain bulls may continue to mostly stay on the sidelines. 

While the grain market bulls have been beaten down hard over the past few weeks, there are a couple of clues that there may be some light at the end of the tunnel: Seasonal studies show that corn and soybean futures markets tend to put in price bottoms in the late-October/early November period and then trend up into late January. Secondly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) technical oscillator is showing well oversold conditions for corn, beans, meal, and wheat futures — suggesting that prices are likely to at least see corrective rebounds soon. 

Export Demand, Growing Conditions in South America Come into Focus

Attention of the grain markets will turn from U.S. supplies to export demand for U.S. crops in the coming months. Demand for U.S. corn abroad has been decent in recent weeks. The South American growing season and weather patterns there will also move closer to the front burner of the corn, soybean, and wheat futures market for the next few months. 

Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans has picked up recently. The USDA on Friday morning reported daily U.S. soybean sales totaling 297,150 MT to unknown destinations during 2026-27. U.S. soybean meal exports hit a record 18.6 million tons in 2025-26 and are projected to hit 20.6 MT in 2026-27 – growth of around 66% since 2020 as the nation’s share of global meal trade has risen from 18% to a projected 23% over the same period, according to North Dakota State University’s monthly Agricultural Trade Monitor. The report attributes the export boom to growing domestic crush capacity tied to renewable diesel demand.

Wheat Traders Closely Watching Russia-Ukraine talks, Black Sea Shipments

This week, wheat futures trades will be looking for any fresh news on the proposed Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks among Presidents Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping, which are very market-sensitive for wheat futures. Ukraine has recently struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region. Both Ukraine and Russia are examining workarounds on getting their grain shipped out of their respective countries, given the Black Sea shipping constraints that are due to attacks on each other’s vessels.

China has recently indicated interest in purchasing U.S. wheat for the first time since the Trump-Xi summit in September, where that nation had expressed interest in further U.S. ag purchases. USDA export sales for U.S. wheat last week showed a marketing year high of 849,000 MT of net sales across all wheat classes.

Let me know what you think. I enjoy hearing from my valued Barchart readers all around the globe. Email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com.

On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not directly have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.