Daily Futures Outlook
TRADEGUIDANCE
Daily Futures Outlook
Monday, November 2, 2026 · Day session · Barchart edition
S&P Futures Rebound Toward TradeGuidance Target as Oil Slides on Iran Talks
S&P 500 E-mini futures bounced Monday after Friday's tech-led selloff, when the S&P 500 fell 1.82% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 3.46%. At 9:23 a.m. ET, ES traded at 7,655.50, already above the playbook's long participation range of 7,580.00–7,608.75 and 27.75 points from the 7,683.25 target. All three index option maps are in positive gamma, which favors a range day with a heavy week still ahead.
Market context
Oil is the morning's other story. Early quotes had December WTI near $97.58, down about 6%, and Brent near $109 on reports that the U.S. and Iran are pursuing a diplomatic deal. Gold rose 1.4% to about $3,954.60 (early quote), and the 10-year yield eased to about 4.90%. Apple reports after the bell, the midterm elections are Tuesday and October payrolls arrive Friday.
Three models, one story
| Fut | Premarket ref | Playbook | Price vs playbook | Price vs SR pivots | 0DTE gamma | Trend odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 7,655.50 | Long | already beyond range, toward target; 27.75 pts to 7,683.25 | between R1 and R2 | Positive (+$1.49B) | 50% |
| NQ | 28,755.25 | Long | already beyond range, toward target; 217.75 pts to 28,973.00 | between R1 and R2 | Positive (+$113.89M) | 15% |
| RTY | 2,843.0 | Long | already beyond range, toward target; 7.1 pts to 2,850.1 | between R1 and R2 | Positive (+$69.98M) | 40% |
ES, NQ and RTY line up: all three are long in the playbook, already above their participation ranges, between R1 and R2, and in positive gamma, where dealer hedging tends to dampen moves. The caveat is ES, which sits just 5 SPX points above its 7,617 flip, so its regime label is fragile and trend-day odds are 50%.
Today's resistance grid
| Contract | Expiration | Direction | This is the range for Resistance | Above here resistance breaks | Potential target if resistance holds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES – Emini S&P | Dec-26 | Short | 7,771.00 – 7,766.25 | 7,778.00 | 7,754.50 |
| YM – Emini Dow | Dec-26 | Short | 52,836 – 52,593 | 52,856 | 51,360 |
| NQ – Emini Nasdaq | Dec-26 | Short | 29,769.00 – 29,440.50 | 29,794.00 | 27,771.75 |
| RTY – Emini Russell | Dec-26 | Short | 2,862.1 – 2,847.9 | 2,869.1 | 2,775.5 |
| VX – Volatility | Nov-26 | Long | 19.60 – 20.05 | 18.95 | 22.90 |
The ES and NQ resistance zones sit well above the morning: ES's band starts about 111 points over price and above R3 at 7,731.50. RTY is the one to watch: its 2,847.9–2,862.1 zone starts less than 5 points above 2,843.0 and brackets R2 at 2,854.0 and the /RTY call wall near 2,854.
Playbook spotlight
| Contract | Bias | Participation range | Reversal pt | Initial target | S1 / R1 pivot | Price check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES – Emini S&P | Long | 7,580.00 – 7,608.75 | 7,575.00 | 7,683.25 | 7,586.50 / 7,648.50 | 7,655.50 at 9:23 ET |
- ES: The 7,683.25 target sits between R2 at 7,679.75 and the SPX call wall's /ES equivalent near 7,684, three tools within about 4 points. Holding the flip near /ES 7,651 keeps the dampened, grind-higher regime in place.
Support / resistance roadmap
| Contract | S3 lower target | S2 breakdown | S1 support | R1 resistance | R2 breakout | R3 upper target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 7,503.50 | 7,555.25 | 7,586.50 | 7,648.50 | 7,679.75 | 7,731.50 |
| NQ | 27,911.50 | 28,201.00 | 28,373.50 | 28,719.00 | 28,891.50 | 29,181.00 |
| RTY | 2,762.7 | 2,789.6 | 2,805.7 | 2,837.9 | 2,854.0 | 2,880.9 |
| YM | 51,168 | 51,515 | 51,725 | 52,145 | 52,355 | 52,702 |
| CL | 100.64 | 101.70 | 102.35 | 103.63 | 104.28 | 105.34 |
| GC | 3,811.3 | 3,846.6 | 3,868.1 | 3,910.9 | 3,932.4 | 3,967.7 |
What to watch
- 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM manufacturing for October (consensus 54.7, prior 54.5).
- First 30 minutes: whether ES holds R1 at 7,648.50 and the flip near /ES 7,651; below that, the put wall near /ES 7,634 is next.
- After the bell: Apple earnings, one day before the midterm elections.
Subscribers get all 43 playbook ideas, the TGPivots map and the 0DTE gamma report before the open at tradeguidance.com.
Disclaimer
All investments involve risk. Futures and options trading specifically involve risk; know your financial tolerance before making any trade decision, as you could lose your principal and more. All references in this communication are for educational and guidance purposes only. Trade ideas are derived using technical analysis tools and market-generated information. Use these levels and directions to gauge the possible range of markets, keeping in mind that news and participant sentiment always move price during the session.
0DTE gamma figures are model output built from Schwab option chains using public-style dealer assumptions (calls +, puts −) and prior-session open interest. They are not a measurement of actual dealer positioning. Confirm levels on your own platform before using them. Any action you take using these ideas is your own responsibility.
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