What Gerdau Shareholders Got Right

Gerdau spent much of the past year reporting higher Q3 2026 revenue and a wider net margin than a year earlier, yet the real surprise showed up in the portfolio. Holding Gerdau over the past year would have returned 39.5%, including dividends. If you had been weighing that decision back in October 2025, with bulls focused on North America and bears warning about Brazilian imports, what exactly in the record justified taking that ride?

A Narrative on Simply Wall St is one investor's written case for a company, with its growth, margin and multiple assumptions spelled out. Those assumptions imply an estimated Fair Value.

The move put Gerdau in the middle of this trade. Scan 16 top copper producer stocks for other companies exposed to it.

The Argument You Would Have Been Weighing Up On Gerdau

The shares cost R$18.72 at the start of the period. Anyone looking at Gerdau back then had to choose between two very different yet plausible stories. Both rested on detailed assumptions, not certainties.

The bullish narrative pinned fair value at R$22.26, which was 19% above the start price. It leaned on accelerating North American infrastructure and reshoring demand, as well as investment in projects like Miguel Burnier and advanced electric arc furnaces to lower production costs.

The bearish view set fair value at R$17, which was 9% below the start price. That case focused on rising steel imports into Brazil and weak trade defenses, which could pressure Gerdau’s domestic market share and squeeze profitability over time.

What The Results Changed For The Gerdau Debate

The Q3 2026 report gave Gerdau bulls fresh support. Adjusted EBITDA reached R$3.8b with a 20.2% margin, and net income rose to R$1,554.156m on revenue of R$18,690.518m. Net margin moved from 6.0% in Q3 2025 to 8.3%. North America supplied over 76% of EBITDA, yet Brazilian import concerns still leave the cautious case alive. Overall, the evidence cut both ways.

The useful takeaway is simple. When a thesis hangs on one region, as Gerdau did on North America, it is important to track segment EBITDA share and margin, not just group revenue.

What Gerdau’s 39% Run Already Prices In

Today Gerdau trades at R$25.13 after a 39.5% gain over the past year, while the selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits below the current price. That view leans on the idea that North America is already carrying most of the story and that recent Brazilian pressure is not fully resolved.

The key question now is what must keep going right for this level to hold, especially around North America sustaining a high EBITDA share while Miguel Burnier, Pindamonhangaba and Midlothian eventually deliver the cash flow uplift implied in the Narrative.

"Although Gerdau is currently benefiting from strong North American demand and high regional EBITDA contribution, recent broker downgrades that flag U.S. steel prices and margins as close to a peak, alongside potential pricing pressure from reduced U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and new Mexican capacity, create a risk that revenue and EBITDA in the company’s largest market settle below what current earnings levels imply."

Not everyone reads the same price the same way. → See the lower figure this Narrative lands on, and how it gets there

How Could You Get There Earlier?

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