BofA Sees Novartis' Late-stage Abelacimab Data as 'Most Important' FY27 Catalyst; Buy Retained

07:31 AM EST, 11/02/2026 (MT Newswires) -- BofA Global Research views Novartis' (NOVN.SW) upcoming late-stage data readout for investigational anticoagulant abelacimab in the prevention of stroke and systemic embolism in atrial fibrillation patients as the key catalyst for the Swiss drugmaker in 2027. "Abelacimab [Factor XI] PIII in SPAF (in patients at high risk of bleeding deemed unsuitable for anti-coagulation) is due 1H27E and could be NVS' most important 27E data catalyst," analysts said in a Monday note. "We think PIII is highly likely to hit based on PII data and PIII placebo comparator. Key is therefore: (1) Magnitude of efficacy benefit, with our KOL expecting a>50% relative risk-reduction for abelacimab vs placebo based on prior AF studies; and (2) Major bleed rates, with doc expecting around c5%for placebo arm (higher than prior studies) with 1-2% delta higher for abelacimab deemed acceptable." Peak sales for abelacimab are projected to be in the $2 billion to $5 billion range, with analysts noting that the atrial fibrillation market is estimated at more than $20 billion. The research firm maintained the stock's buy rating, with a price objective of 150 francs, against this backdrop, alongside "solid" sales growth expectations for 2027 and other major catalysts including the data readout for multiple sclerosis drug Kesimpta in a phase 3 study evaluating a once-every-two-months maintenance dose.