RBC Updates Estimates for NatWest Group Post-Q3 Results; Rating, Price Target Kept

06:30 AM EST, 11/02/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets revised its earnings forecasts for NatWest Group (NWG.L) and reiterated its sector perform rating and price target of 7 pounds sterling on the stock after the London-listed lender published its third-quarter results. In a Monday model update note, the research firm projects full-year 2026 total adjusted income of 17.87 billion pounds, compared with management's guidance of around 17.9 billion pounds. Analysts also estimate a fourth-quarter exit net interest margin of 252 basis points, which they expect to hold flat through 2027. "Our FY27 adj PBT estimate decreases by 1% driven by higher impairments (higher COR & loan growth) and NII (lower NIM; higher loan growth). On a divisional basis the changes to our numbers were driven by Retail and Corp Centre, partially offset by C&I. We had already significantly cut our NII numbers going into Q3'26 results driven by our expectation of a funding headwind into FY27," the note said. For 2028, RBC projects total adjusted income of 20.2 billion pounds and capital generation excluding payouts of 210 basis points versus company guidance of greater than 200 basis points. In terms of distributions, the research firm models 12.1 billion pounds in total shareholder returns across 2026 through 2028, comprising 9.4 billion pounds in dividends and 2.7 billion pounds in share buybacks and implying a three-year average dividend yield of 6.9% and a total return yield of 8.9%. Additionally, RBC expects the bank to announce a 500 million-pound share repurchase alongside its 2026 results.