WEBULL
WebtradeDownload

Nexa Resources (NEXA) Could Be 26% Below Fair Value As Earnings Turn Mixed

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Why Nexa Resources earnings matter now

Nexa Resources (NEXA) just posted third quarter and nine month 2026 results, with higher reported sales but a swing from profit to loss in the latest quarter that gives investors more to unpack.

The fresh earnings release lands after a choppy stretch for Nexa Resources, with the share price falling 7.67% over the past day and 17.93% over 90 days, yet still showing a 26.05% year to date share price return and a 97.09% total shareholder return over one year. This suggests that recent weakness may be more about investors reassessing risk than abandoning the longer term story.

Capitalize on the mixed earnings picture at Nexa Resources by comparing it with a curated 36 high quality undervalued stocks list of companies that have stronger balance sheets and cash generation profiles.

The share price has already doubled over the past year, yet the recent pullback and current discount to some valuation estimates suggest that the larger move may still lie ahead rather than behind.

Most Popular Narrative: 26% Undervalued

Nexa Resources last closed at $11.08, while the most followed narrative points to a fair value of $14.90. The story centers on whether the current share price properly reflects the balance between volume growth projects, heavy reinvestment needs and balance sheet risk.

The plan to reach Aripuana’s nameplate capacity only in the second half of 2026, with the fourth tailings filter still in installation and commissioning, concentrates a lot of future zinc volume and cash flow in a single asset. Any delay or underperformance could weigh on revenue growth and EBITDA.

See why 6 investors see Nexa Resources as 26% undervalued.

The most widely followed view uses an 11.29% discount rate and lands on that $14.90 fair value. This sits well above both the last close and the company’s own DCF estimate of $14.19, framing Nexa Resources as trading at a material markdown to these modelled cash flow paths.

That same narrative assumes revenue of about $3.3b by 2029, profit margins near 7.8% and a future P/E of roughly 10.5x. This is well below the 21.6x multiple applied to the broader US Metals and Mining group in the model, so the implied upside depends on investors paying closer to that 10.5x level as earnings evolve.

Analysts in that framework also keep the share count flat and apply a higher discount rate than before. This keeps the valuation grounded in a relatively cautious risk setting even as it still places fair value comfortably above where the stock trades today.

Result: Fair Value of $14.90 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the story can change quickly if Aripuana underdelivers on its ramp up or if heavier CapEx at Cerro Pasco squeezes Nexa Resources free cash flow.

Find out about the key risks to this Nexa Resources narrative.

Next Steps

Mixed feelings about Nexa Resources after these results is a fair reaction, and this is exactly the point where your own work matters most. Take a closer look at both the potential upsides and the areas of concern by reviewing the 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more Nexa Resources investment ideas?

If Nexa Resources has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with data driven ideas that could sharpen your portfolio’s risk reward profile.

  • Target stability first and stress test your downside by scanning a 29 resilient stocks with low risk scores built around resilient balance sheets and quieter share price swings.
  • Hunt for quality at a discount through a 19 high quality undiscovered gems that highlights underfollowed companies with strong fundamentals and room for the story to catch up.
  • Anchor your future returns with dependable income streams by reviewing a 5 dividend fortresses that focuses on higher yielding payouts backed by robust cash flows.