SPX Technologies (SPXC) Lifts Guidance Following Q3 Growth, Is The Stock Still A Bargain?

Q3 earnings and guidance reset the narrative

SPX Technologies (SPXC) put fresh numbers on the table with its third quarter 2026 report, pairing higher year-on-year sales and earnings with a lift in full year revenue guidance.

The headline metrics are clear enough. Quarterly sales came in at US$714.5 million and net income at US$81.9 million, with management pointing to HVAC demand in data center cooling and custom air handling as key contributors.

Investors also received an updated full year outlook. The group now guides to revenue between US$2.745 billion and US$2.805 billion, a range that sits modestly above the prior US$2.705 billion to US$2.765 billion band.

Price action has not followed the earnings and guidance story in a straight line. The stock is down about 8% over the past month and about 25% over the past 3 months, even after this results release.

Over the past year, SPX Technologies has shifted from strong longer term gains to a tougher stretch recently, with the share price down 21.31% year to date and the 1 year total shareholder return down 28.56%. This contrasts with a still sizeable 3 year total shareholder return of 93.86% and 5 year total shareholder return of 141.29%, which indicates that momentum has been fading rather than building in the near term.

Recent price weakness around the latest US$714.5 million quarter and higher full year revenue guidance suggests investors are weighing the growth in HVAC demand and data center exposure against ongoing margin pressures and the updated earnings outlook. This can shift how the market prices both risk and potential for SPX Technologies at the current US$159.95 share price.

Spot under-pressure industrials like SPX Technologies and compare them with a curated 42 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks tied to data center cooling and critical infrastructure demand.

SPX Technologies now trades at a clear discount to both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates after a sharp pullback. Is that gap a margin of safety, or a warning sign about the market’s caution?

Most Popular Narrative: 21% Undervalued

Against the last close at $159.95, the most followed narrative pegs SPX Technologies at a fair value of $203.00, which frames the recent pullback very differently from the price chart alone.

The liquid cooling shift underneath this stock is one of the more genuinely interesting structural stories in industrials right now, and SPX Technologies is a legitimate, well-built way to eventually own it. I'd just rather fall in love with it at a price that doesn't need me to be right about everything.

See why 37 investors see SPX Technologies as 21% undervalued.

According to John_Eric, who built that valuation on a discounted cash flow framework using SPX Technologies filings, the implied discount rate applied was 8.52% and produced a fair value of $203.00 per share. That sits well above the current $159.95 level, which means the narrative views the recent share price decline as creating a roughly 21% discount to intrinsic value, not as evidence that the underlying business has broken.

The same thesis leans heavily on what has already been reported rather than blue-sky projection, including annual revenue of $2.598b, net income of $304.2m and an 11.7% profit margin that has improved from 10.4% last year. Earnings have grown 36% over the past year and 37.1% per year over five years, which supports the idea that cash flow used in the model is anchored in an established track record, even while the author remains cautious on paying too high a price.

Layer on top the current signals from Simply Wall St's checks, and the picture is mixed but coherent with that narrative. SPX Technologies is described as trading 20.2% below an estimate of fair value, with the stock also marked as undervalued against an estimated future cash flow value of $200.55, while earnings are forecast to grow 19.04% per year and revenue 13.5% per year, slightly ahead of the wider US market at 13.1% per year.

There are also risk flags that keep the story grounded. Return on equity is considered low at 12.4% compared with a 20% threshold, funding relies entirely on higher risk external borrowing rather than customer deposits, and the business is said to have a high level of debt, even if leverage metrics have not been quantified in the latest checks. Those factors help explain why the discount rate in the narrative model is not especially low and why the author puts weight on backlog quality and segment margins rather than only on headline growth.

At the same time, the governance and quality markers inside SPX Technologies point to an operator that has handled past expansion reasonably well. The board is considered seasoned and independent, with 90% independent directors and an average tenure of 11.2 years, the management team has an average tenure of 4 years, and CEO Gene's total compensation of $9.34m is assessed as broadly in line with US peers and consistent with recent company performance.

Pull all of that together and the most popular narrative sees a mature industrial rewired into the data center cooling buildout, with earnings quality and growth supporting a fair value above where the market is currently trading the stock. The recent 1 year total shareholder return of down 28.56% and year to date move of down 21.31% sit awkwardly next to a three year total return of 93.86% and five year total return of 141.29%. This reinforces the original point from that narrative that the story may not have changed as fast as the price.

Result: Fair Value of $203.00 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, two things can quickly puncture the SPX Technologies undervaluation story: HVAC margins staying compressed and the shrinking Detection & Measurement backlog persisting.

Find out about the key risks to this SPX Technologies narrative.

Next Steps

If the mood of this SPX Technologies story feels split between promise and pressure, do not just watch from the sidelines. Move quickly and stress test the data for yourself. Then weigh the concerns and the potential using our breakdown of 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

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