The rapid drop in gold prices triggered batch stop-losses. I think it was a centralized stop-loss order. It was not a complete shift in the fundamental trend. There is a possibility of a rebound in November. The core anchors the two main lines of the midterm elections and the December interest rate path. From the perspective of the midterm elections, the election results will directly reshape the market's pricing of US fiscal expansion, trade, and geopolitical policies: if Congress forms a pattern of division, the difficulty of implementing large-scale fiscal stimulus increases, aggregate demand cools marginally, expectations of continued upward inflation weaken, and long-term yields on US bonds are prone to correction, giving room for gold to recover; if the ruling party gains an advantage, the market will re-trade deficit expansion, inflationary stickiness, and the upward pressure on interest rates continues. At the same time, pre-election policy uncertainty itself will bring about phased safe-haven premiums, but this kind of rebound is more of a risk premium repair. It is a pulse-type market, and it continues to rely on election results to infer the White House's follow-up policies. Also, the core driver of the decline in gold prices before was that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates once more during the year. Currently, the market has already increased the price by 25 bps again in December to a high degree. Even if the December rate hike is implemented, if the Federal Reserve releases the “end of this round of interest rate hikes” signal at the interest rate meeting, the market will quickly end the interest rate hike cycle and anticipate interest rate cuts, forming a typical negative rebound. Conversely, if inflation rebounds again, expectations for interest rate hikes in December are further strengthened. The technical rebound after this overselling is only a short recovery, and the pressure will continue after the rebound. Overall, there is an opportunity for gold to rebound, but in the short term, it should still be viewed as a game-style correction. It is not a trend reversal. The rebound window focuses on the data observation period from the election to the December interest rate agreement, and it is necessary to continuously track the extent to which inflation and employment data revise interest rate pricing.

The rapid drop in gold prices triggered batch stop-losses. I think it was a centralized stop-loss order. It was not a complete shift in the fundamental trend. There is a possibility of a rebound in November. The core anchors the two main lines of the midterm elections and the December interest rate path. From the perspective of the midterm elections, the election results will directly reshape the market's pricing of US fiscal expansion, trade, and geopolitical policies: if Congress forms a pattern of division, the difficulty of implementing large-scale fiscal stimulus increases, aggregate demand cools marginally, expectations of continued upward inflation weaken, and long-term yields on US bonds are prone to correction, giving room for gold to recover; if the ruling party gains an advantage, the market will re-trade deficit expansion, inflationary stickiness, and the upward pressure on interest rates continues. At the same time, pre-election policy uncertainty itself will bring about phased safe-haven premiums, but this kind of rebound is more of a risk premium repair. It is a pulse-type market, and it continues to rely on election results to infer the White House's follow-up policies. Also, the core driver of the decline in gold prices before was that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates once more during the year. Currently, the market has already increased the price by 25 bps again in December to a high degree. Even if the December rate hike is implemented, if the Federal Reserve releases the “end of this round of interest rate hikes” signal at the interest rate meeting, the market will quickly end the interest rate hike cycle and anticipate interest rate cuts, forming a typical negative rebound. Conversely, if inflation rebounds again, expectations for interest rate hikes in December are further strengthened. The technical rebound after this overselling is only a short recovery, and the pressure will continue after the rebound. Overall, there is an opportunity for gold to rebound, but in the short term, it should still be viewed as a game-style correction. It is not a trend reversal. The rebound window focuses on the data observation period from the election to the December interest rate agreement, and it is necessary to continuously track the extent to which inflation and employment data revise interest rate pricing.