Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TSE:4661) Half-Yearly Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
Investors in Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TSE:4661) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.8% to close at JP¥3,438 following the release of its half-year results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of JP¥349b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥37.73 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Oriental Land is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the 15 analysts covering Oriental Land are now predicting revenues of JP¥762.3b in 2027. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 3.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥82.24, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥754.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥80.46 in 2027. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Oriental Land's earnings potential following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for Oriental Land
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥3,384, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Oriental Land, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,000 and the most bearish at JP¥2,460 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Oriental Land's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 7.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. Compare this to the 162 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Oriental Land's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Oriental Land's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Oriental Land. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Oriental Land going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also see our analysis of Oriental Land's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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