According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, there are currently no industrial cracks in the market that can significantly reverse the AI shock narrative. Considering the clarification of major disturbances in the last 1 to 2 weeks and the phased return of AI's optimistic narrative, we are optimistic about the possibility of a rebound in US stock technology after the midterm elections. Semiconductor hardware is the primary direction. 1) At present, major US technology companies have completed the disclosure of their three-quarter reports. After the US midterm elections on November 3, the market is expected to enter a short period of quiet. 2) The US stock market has viewed the Democratic Party's sweeping across both houses as a benchmark situation. Since 1958, there have been 17 midterm elections, and the probability that the market will rise by more than 70% within 6 months after the midterm elections. Compared with the final election results, the end of the election process and the elimination of uncertainty are more beneficial to the market. 3) The widening capacity gap between cutting-edge models of phased closed source and open source helps the market reshape the narrative of token economics. Meanwhile, the increase in token consumption brought about by the release of the new model is expected to support Anthropic's October ARR data. However, the recent decline in the SOX index, along with the decline in long-term bond yields during the same period, reflects that the market has partially taken into account pessimistic expectations of the subsequent AI CAPEX slowdown.

According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, there are currently no industrial cracks in the market that can significantly reverse the AI shock narrative. Considering the clarification of major disturbances in the last 1 to 2 weeks and the phased return of AI's optimistic narrative, we are optimistic about the possibility of a rebound in US stock technology after the midterm elections. Semiconductor hardware is the primary direction. 1) At present, major US technology companies have completed the disclosure of their three-quarter reports. After the US midterm elections on November 3, the market is expected to enter a short period of quiet. 2) The US stock market has viewed the Democratic Party's sweeping across both houses as a benchmark situation. Since 1958, there have been 17 midterm elections, and the probability that the market will rise by more than 70% within 6 months after the midterm elections. Compared with the final election results, the end of the election process and the elimination of uncertainty are more beneficial to the market. 3) The widening capacity gap between cutting-edge models of phased closed source and open source helps the market reshape the narrative of token economics. Meanwhile, the increase in token consumption brought about by the release of the new model is expected to support Anthropic's October ARR data. However, the recent decline in the SOX index, along with the decline in long-term bond yields during the same period, reflects that the market has partially taken into account pessimistic expectations of the subsequent AI CAPEX slowdown.