CITIC Securities proposed four types of allocation thinking to deal with the current market. The first is a steady return strategy. The core is to focus on changes in supply during the phase of chaotic demand cues around industries with high dividends or supply clearance potential. The second is an anticipatory interpretation strategy, similar to “aviation and hotels in 2022,” finding sectors where the market is unanimously bearish on fundamentals and has a very low holding ratio, and then realizes it when the final policy changes are made; it is only a valuation repair game. The third is the strategy of falling overseas interest rates. Using the revision of North American AI investment and financing expectations and the corresponding fall in overseas long-term interest rates as macroeconomic prerequisites. After the market revises EPS expectations, it depends on whether the non-AI sector's manufacturing overseas and resource stocks can break out of short-term demand suppression. Fourth, the racetrack hot+chip clearance strategy is similar to finding “household storage and inverters in 2022,” using the unexpected explosion of demand in new fields as an opportunity to cut the bottom of technology to find areas where institutions and active capital can resonate, rather than simply playing “inorganic.” CITIC Securities believes that all four strategies have the potential to obtain relative returns and are suitable for different return and risk preferences. The financial pressure on the market determines which type of strategy is superior in stages.

Zhitongcaijing · 2d ago
CITIC Securities proposed four types of allocation thinking to deal with the current market. The first is a steady return strategy. The core is to focus on changes in supply during the phase of chaotic demand cues around industries with high dividends or supply clearance potential. The second is an anticipatory interpretation strategy, similar to “aviation and hotels in 2022,” finding sectors where the market is unanimously bearish on fundamentals and has a very low holding ratio, and then realizes it when the final policy changes are made; it is only a valuation repair game. The third is the strategy of falling overseas interest rates. Using the revision of North American AI investment and financing expectations and the corresponding fall in overseas long-term interest rates as macroeconomic prerequisites. After the market revises EPS expectations, it depends on whether the non-AI sector's manufacturing overseas and resource stocks can break out of short-term demand suppression. Fourth, the racetrack hot+chip clearance strategy is similar to finding “household storage and inverters in 2022,” using the unexpected explosion of demand in new fields as an opportunity to cut the bottom of technology to find areas where institutions and active capital can resonate, rather than simply playing “inorganic.” CITIC Securities believes that all four strategies have the potential to obtain relative returns and are suitable for different return and risk preferences. The financial pressure on the market determines which type of strategy is superior in stages.