Earnings Beat: Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
The third-quarter results for Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. (TSE:2212) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥335b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Yamazaki Baking surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥38.99 per share, a notable 10% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Yamazaki Baking's nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.40t in 2027. This reflects an okay 3.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 11% to JP¥242. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.39t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥238 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
See our latest analysis for Yamazaki Baking
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥4,056, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Yamazaki Baking, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,500 and the most bearish at JP¥3,600 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Yamazaki Baking's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 2.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.8% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Yamazaki Baking is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,056, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Yamazaki Baking analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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