CNX Resources (CNX) Stock Rallies Despite Q3 Earnings Pressure

CNX Resources came into Q3 earnings with its stock already on a tear, up about 20% over the past month and another 1.9% today to US$37.49. The narrative around CNX has been simple lately: high trailing profitability and a low P/E have fed a value story that feels almost too easy.

The fresh Q3 2026 numbers complicate that a bit. Net income excluding extraordinary items landed at US$165.2 million on US$419.4 million of revenue, a solid profit story on its own. The tension for you as an investor is clear. The share price is leaning into that value thesis, while the quarterly print hints at pressure on earnings momentum and margins that will need closer inspection.

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Q3 2026 Earnings Summary

• Revenue (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): US$419.4 million vs. US$450.8 million (declined 7.0%)
• Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): US$165.2 million vs. US$202.1 million (fell 18.2%)
• Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): US$1.13 vs. US$1.45 (decreased 22.0%)
• Trailing 12-Month Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): US$912.6 million vs. US$292.3 million (very large increase, a bit over 3x)

CNX Resources is staying cautious despite being well hedged into 2027. Ask Charlie what keeps CNX Resources stuck in maintenance mode.

CNX Bull Case Hinges On Cash Flow Mix

The bullish pitch on CNX Resources leans on a shift toward steadier, higher quality cash flows rather than just more volume.

"The main thing that has to go right is that CNX Resources maintains capital discipline while successfully scaling its low carbon monetization and capturing in basin power and data center demand without major regulatory setbacks."

The latest quarter shows part of that formula in place. Q3 revenue and net income excluding extraordinary items remain healthy, and management is still prioritizing buybacks and tight capital intensity targets. At the same time, there are no firm power or data center contracts and no quantified low carbon monetization yet, so those diversification pillars are still future milestones.

Not everyone reads the same price the same way. → See the higher figure this Narrative lands on, and how it gets there.

CNX Bear Case: Project Payoff Still Out Of Reach

The worry is that CNX Resources talks up future low carbon and power demand while the cash flows remain hypothetical.

"At the same time, there are no firm power or data center contracts and no quantified low carbon monetization yet, so those diversification pillars are still future milestones."

Q3 confirms that concern. Earnings rely on traditional gas production and hedging, with no disclosed contribution from environmental attribute projects or new large load agreements. Revenue fell 7% and net income excluding extraordinary items declined 18.2%, so core gas economics are doing the work while the promised secondary engines are not yet visible.

Hunt For Quiet Mispricings

CNX Resources just showed how a strong trailing story can meet more complicated quarterly numbers. The real opportunity is finding companies that could be undervalued before the market adjusts.

• Company 1 - 20% below our estimate - uses expanding customer balances, cards and accounts to deepen fee income across its payments platform.
• Company 2 - 31% below our estimate - builds large AI superclusters that a major model provider now adopts as a second cloud platform.
• Company 3 - 30% below our estimate - embeds paid AI copilots into core productivity tools while its cloud division onboards more enterprise workloads.

That is three of the list. See the full list of 29 companies trading below our fair value estimates →

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